SD vs SF prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.1 - SD 2.5. SF is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
SF
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSD
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W4SF
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
124
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.1 — SD 2.5
Actual
SF 3 — SD 2
Pick Results
Miguel Andujar OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF30%95 mph18% whiff
FC27%90 mph26% whiff
CU15%84 mph22% whiff
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SL48%86 mph38% whiff
SI40%93 mph9% whiff
CH7%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
58°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.979
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
4.38ERA
3.83FIP
7.82K/9
3.71BB/9
1.37WHIP
SF
3.06ERA
3.84FIP
9.01K/9
4.68BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-48.8% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-38.1% EV
+116
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+35.4% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 4.5
+32.7% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-28.6% EV
-139
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.7% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.1 runs
27.1% win
SF F5
1.7 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
2.7
NRFI
70.0%
YRFI
30.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
70%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
30%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 59.1%
-27.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.7 pts
Total
8.5
+35.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →