SD vs SF prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.5 - SD 3.1. SD is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
SF
2.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SD
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSD
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
SF
124
Projected
SF 2.5 — SD 3.1
Actual
SF 5 — SD 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph14% whiff
FF18%93 mph7% whiff
KC16%77 mph35% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI38%92 mph13% whiff
CH24%86 mph27% whiff
ST21%84 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
57°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.951 Total: 0.971
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
4.34ERA
3.82FIP
8.02K/9
3.63BB/9
1.35WHIP
SF
3.07ERA
3.95FIP
8.77K/9
4.67BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-42.0% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.9% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.7% EV
+155
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+30.2% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.9% EV
-141
NRFI NRFI
+20.5% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.5 runs
40.3% win
SF F5
1.3 runs
33.8% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
71.7%
YRFI
28.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.49
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
71%
Over 1.5 HR
35%
No HR
29%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
SF8 injured
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=235)
Walker Buehler's (5.83 ERA, C+) advantage over Logan Webb (4.64 ERA, C+) is minimal, BUT Oracle Park extreme suppression (0.88 factor), cold weather (57F), and strong wind-in (12.5 mph) create perfect UNDER storm; 30.2% edge is extreme but pitcher/park/weather alignment is real.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup slight to away (SD): Walker Buehler 5.83 ERA, C+ vs Logan Webb 4.64 ERA, C+ — only 1.19 ERA gap favors home minimally
- Oracle Park factor 0.88 (suppresses 12% of runs, equivalent to -1.0 to -1.5 runs from neutral)
- Cold weather (57.0F) = ~-0.8 runs per typical park baseline
- Strong wind-in (12.5 mph, tail -10.2) = ~-0.3 to -0.5 runs
- Combined park/weather/wind effect: -2.0 to -2.3 runs from typical environment
Risk Factors
- 30.2% edge is at absolute extreme high-edge warning — historically these show worst performance (25% WR in 15-25%+ buckets)
- Buehler at 5.83 ERA is elevated; could suggest recent struggle or specific opponent issues — unknown
- Cold/wind forecasts could shift overnight, invalidating entire thesis
PARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACTEXTREME WEATHERHIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONEWIND IN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 56.2%
-30.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.7 pts
Total
7.5
+30.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →