SD vs SF Prediction & Picks — May 6, 2026

SD vs SF prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.4 - SD 2.3. SF is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 4.7 total runs.

2.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

2.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.6%

48.4%

SFSD

+1.5

Run Line (SF)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

024

Projected

SF 2.4 — SD 2.3

Actual

SF 1 — SD 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Bradgley Rodriguez R

CH42%89 mph44% whiff

SI26%97 mph12% whiff

FF20%98 mph17% whiff

Adrian Houser R

SI44%95 mph6% whiff

CH21%86 mph36% whiff

SL15%88 mph16% whiff

Weather Impact

Oracle Park

65°F3 mph wind

HR: 0.994 Total: 0.996

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

4.28ERA

3.86FIP

8.03K/9

3.53BB/9

1.32WHIP

3.23ERA

3.95FIP

8.47K/9

4.62BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

TOTAL OVER 8.5

-59.8% EV

-105

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

+48.4% EV

-115

F5 UNDER 4.5

+44.0% EV

-114

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-43.5% EV

-189

NRFI NRFI

+23.5% EV

-118

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-23.5% EV

+155

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SD F5

1.1 runs

32.5% win

SF F5

1.2 runs

37.1% win

F5 Total

2.3

NRFI

72.0%

YRFI

28.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.48

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.1

Over 0.5 HR

66%

Over 1.5 HR

29%

No HR

34%

Gavin Sheets SD23.8%

ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x

Casey Schmitt SF18.6%

ISO: 0.298 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | Park: 0.88x

Ramón Laureano SD17.5%

ISO: 0.094 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Bradgley Rodriguez

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Adrian Houser

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SD8 injured

Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL

Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL

German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL

Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL

Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL

Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

SF8 injured

Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL

Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY

Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL

Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=236)

Massive pitching mismatch: Rodriguez (away, 1.75 ERA, 20% K, B grade) vs Houser (home, 7.69 ERA, 12% K, C grade) = 5.94 ERA gap in SD's favor. Market sets 8.5 total but model projects 4.69 (3.81 run gap, 48.4% edge on UNDER). This game is fundamentally low-scoring due to elite away SP, cold weather (64.6°F), and Oracle Park's marine layer (-12% run factor = 0.88x multiplier). UNDER 8.5 is the core edge.

Key Factors

Elite SP mismatch: Rodriguez 1.75 ERA / 20% K (B grade, elite stuff) vs Houser 7.69 ERA / 12% K (C grade, poor stuff) = 5.94 ERA gap.
Park/weather suppression: Oracle Park 0.88x multiplier (marine layer, 2.9 mph in-wind) reduces runs by ~1.5 total vs average ballpark.
Cold temperature: 64.6°F suppresses HR distance by 0.3-0.5 runs vs 75°F baseline.
Historical SP-driven unders: When ace (sub-2.5 ERA) starts vs poor arm (>7.0 ERA), UNDER edges average 35-45% in cold parks.

Risk Factors

Edge >45% = EXTREME. Triggers overconfidence alert. Model could be wrong by 10-15 points due to hidden variables (batter adjustments, bullpen fatigue, lineup changes).
TOTAL market DISABLED (grade D). Suggests systematic market inefficiency, not edge opportunity. Recent performance: 49.3% WR on totals.
Market set at 8.5 suggests public expects more runs. Possible hidden factor: SD lineup vs Houser historically struggles (need platoon data to check).

EXTREME EDGE WARNING (48.4% under edge, triggers overconfidence review)DISABLED MARKET (TOTAL grade D, 49.3% WR, but F5 GREEN at 57.4%)ELITE SP MISMATCH (5.94 ERA gap, Rodriguez 1.75 vs Houser 7.69)PARK FACTOR STRONG (Oracle 0.88x multiplier, marine layer)WEATHER IMPACT (cold 64°F, in-wind suppression)F5 PREFERENCE (44% edge, F5 totals GREEN zone)

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SF 51.6%

-43.5 pts

Run Line