Who is predicted to win SD vs STL on June 15, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SD is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is STL 3.4 - SD 3.7.

How did SD vs STL on June 15, 2026 end?

Final score: STL 3 - SD 0. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SD vs STL Prediction & Picks — June 15, 2026

SD vs STL prediction for June 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - SD 3.7. SD is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.

STL

3.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

3.7

Projected Score

Win Probability

47.9%

52.1%

STLSD

-1.5

Run Line (STL)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,358 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

246

STL

135

Projected

STL 3.4 — SD 3.7

Actual

STL 3 — SD 0

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Wandy Peralta L

SI39%96 mph14% whiff

CH34%90 mph31% whiff

SL17%90 mph26% whiff

Dustin May R

STL

FF26%97 mph16% whiff

FC22%93 mph21% whiff

ST20%86 mph32% whiff

Weather Impact

Busch Stadium

80°F7 mph wind

HR: 1.004 Total: 0.999

thin air, 6mph in

Bullpen Comparison

3.19ERA

3.69FIP

8.44K/9

3.49BB/9

1.24WHIP

STL

4.30ERA

4.29FIP

8.27K/9

4.08BB/9

1.36WHIP

Betting Edges

TOTAL OVER 8.5

-31.5% EV

-114

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-30.1% EV

-161

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

+23.3% EV

-106

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-22.0% EV

+134

ML HOME

-19.6% EV

-167

ML AWAY

+19.4% EV

+140

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SD F5

1.8 runs

42.1% win

STL F5

1.8 runs

39.2% win

F5 Total

3.6

NRFI

63.0%

YRFI

37.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.74

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.7

Over 0.5 HR

81%

Over 1.5 HR

51%

No HR

19%

Jordan Walker STL28.1%

ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Wandy Peralta | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x

Manny Machado SD26.6%

ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x

Rodolfo Durán SD23.1%

ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 18.6% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Wandy Peralta

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Dustin May

0.0 K projected

STL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SD8 injured

Mason Miller RPBEREAVEMENT

Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL

Freddy Fermin C7-DAY IL

Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL

Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL

Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL

+2 more

STL7 injured

Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL

Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL

Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY

Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY

Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY

Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY

+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=191)

Model projects 7.07 runs vs market 8.5 total—massive 23.3% UNDER edge backed by two strikeout-heavy arms (May 8.0 K/9, Peralta elite control) in lower-scoring parks.

Key Factors

Strikeout-heavy arms: May 8.0 K/9, Peralta elite control (1.41% BB rate in sample) — elite K-suppression
Model total 7.07 vs market 8.5 = 1.43 run gap, +23.3% UNDER edge
Zone support: OVER in B+ grade (56.6% WR), but model confidence in UNDER is strong at 63.6% prob
Weather neutral: 79.8°F, 6mph in, STL standard ballpark, no amplification

Risk Factors

Market may have sharp money on OVER if teams are hot offensively
Both teams averaging >4 runs per game possible if lineups elevate
Peralta unfamiliar in full-game starter role (elite reliever background)

TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHDIRECTION CONFIRMED

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SD 52.1%

-22.0 pts

Run Line