SD vs STL prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.2 - SD 4.2. STL is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
STL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSD
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,386 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.2 — SD 4.2
Actual
STL 3 — SD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
CH27%86 mph27% whiff
ST20%82 mph25% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph13% whiff
SL29%88 mph31% whiff
SI19%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
80°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.984
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.0% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.2% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+6.1% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.9% EV
+172
ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.1 runs
38.3% win
STL F5
2.5 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.98x
Gavin Sheets SD28.5%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Alec Burleson STL27.7%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Mason Miller RPBEREAVEMENT
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C7-DAY IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=198)
UNDER 8.0 has +6.1% edge (54.1% model vs 47.9% market) — solid value. Model projects 8.4 total runs (0.4 under the 8.0 line). Both pitchers are below-average but acceptable (Andre Pallante 4.19 ERA, Michael King 3.74 ERA). Weather 79.7F with 11.8 mph wind blowing in (-11.8 tail) is SUPPRESSIVE. Market is pricing overs, model sees unders.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality edge to SD: King 3.74 ERA (B- 0.474 grade) vs Pallante 4.19 ERA (B- 0.448) — King is marginally superior
- Wind blowing in (11.8 mph, -11.8 tail) is STRONGLY SUPPRESSIVE of run scoring. Reduces expectation by ~0.5-1.0 runs
- Temperature 79.7F is warm but wind negates heating effect. Net suppressive weather
- Both lineups produce 4.2 and 4.2 runs (STL/SD) — balanced offensive output expected
- NRFI near-neutral (54.2% prob) — neither team will break out early, supporting under narrative for full game
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone totals (50.1% WR, n=198) — no profitable niche for totals generally
- Edge only +6.1% — above minimal 5% threshold but below optimal band (5-10% = 71.4% WR). Marginal profitability
- Under market is DISABLED per calibration data (min edge 15%, grade F). System doesn't trust unders below 15% edge. Contradicts this recommendation
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 52.1%
-35.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.0 pts
Total
8.0
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →