SD vs TEX prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.0 - SD 4.8. SD is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
TEX
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SD
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSD
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (2,480 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.0 — SD 4.8
Actual
TEX 4 — SD 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC24%90 mph18% whiff
FF20%94 mph6% whiff
SI16%94 mph3% whiff
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF44%96 mph22% whiff
CU22%82 mph29% whiff
CH10%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
88°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.2% EV
-208
F5_ML HOME
-24.3% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.3% EV
+172
F5_ML AWAY
+18.2% EV
+112
ML HOME
-14.8% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-13.7% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.9 runs
50.7% win
TEX F5
2.2 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Manny Machado SD29.8%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Merrill SD23.8%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 6.8% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x
Joc Pederson TEX21.1%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Ron Marinaccio RPSUSPENSION
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C7-DAY IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Nathan Eovaldi SPDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSDAY-TO-DAY
Corey Seager SS7-DAY IL
Evan Carter CF10-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE54.7% WR (n=8)
Walker Buehler (TEX, 4.47 ERA, C+ 0.417 grade) vs MacKenzie Gore (SD, 4.61 ERA, B- 0.5 grade). Gore has slight SP edge, but San Diego is facing -129 line (TEX favored). Model gives SD 51.9% win prob vs market 47.6% (8.9% edge). Globe Life Field extreme heat (87.6F) + retractable roof closed likely suppresses runs slightly (1.03 total mult). F5_ML AWAY shows 18.2% edge (55.8% model prob vs market ~38%), but this is high-edge caution territory. Lean on full-game ML at 8.9% edge, skip F5 unless zone approves.
Key Factors
- Gore (0.5 B- grade, 8.0 K/9) vs Buehler (0.417 C+ grade, 8.0 K/9) — K-rates identical, Gore has better stuff
- Heat suppression: 87.6F, roof closed (1.03 multiplier) = neutral total environment, slight under lean if totals play
- SD away underdog in RED zone: 45.6% WR — market may be pricing correctly despite model edge
- 8.9% edge is in profitable 5-10% range (71.4% WR) — modest actionable edge
- F5_ML AWAY 18.2% edge is high-alert territory; skip unless zone shows GREEN
Risk Factors
- Away dogs in RED zone have 45.6% historical WR; this edge may be noise
- Buehler is experienced (past ace), Gore still developing — intangible edge to veteran
- High F5 edge (18.2%) suggests model might be overconfident on early runs
PITCHER MISMATCHHEAT FACTORMILD EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 53.3%
-18.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.3 pts
Total
7.5
+4.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →