SD vs WSH prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 6.8 - SD 5.0. WSH is favored with a 66.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
WSH
6.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SD
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHSD
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
WSH
579
Projected
WSH 6.8 — SD 5.0
Actual
WSH 4 — SD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Canning R
SD
CH28%90 mph31% whiff
FF26%94 mph24% whiff
SL24%87 mph40% whiff
Zack Littell R
WSH
FF29%92 mph9% whiff
SL28%88 mph17% whiff
FS20%84 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
74°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.16ERA
3.49FIP
8.28K/9
3.53BB/9
1.21WHIP
WSH
4.48ERA
4.49FIP
8.33K/9
3.63BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-33.2% EV
+142
ML AWAY
-30.9% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-26.3% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-25.7% EV
-110
ML HOME
+24.4% EV
-102
F5 OVER 5.5
+19.8% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.9 runs
31.4% win
WSH F5
4.3 runs
57.5% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
43.3%
YRFI
56.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.42
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.6
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
87%
No HR
3%
Ty France SD30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Zack Littell
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Zack Littell | Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Griffin Canning | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Canning
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Zack Littell
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Dylan Crews CFDAY-TO-DAY
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Data integrity issue: Model favors WSH 66.2% but market shows SD away -116 (53.7% implied). Littell 5.65 ERA vs Canning should scream away value, yet SD is FAVORITE. Market likely has hidden injury/roster info. Skip.
DATA INTEGRITYMARKET MODEL CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 66.2%
-14.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-14.8 pts
Total
9.5
+19.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →