SEA vs BAL prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 6.1 - SEA 3.8. BAL is favored with a 71.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
BAL
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALSEA
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.1% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 6.1 — SEA 3.8
Actual
BAL 5 — SEA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF33%96 mph16% whiff
SL23%86 mph34% whiff
FS16%81 mph38% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF42%93 mph19% whiff
CH23%87 mph23% whiff
SI13%93 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
84°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.05ERA
3.58FIP
8.88K/9
3.58BB/9
1.32WHIP
BAL
4.41ERA
3.88FIP
8.94K/9
3.54BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-44.7% EV
+128
F5_ML AWAY
-39.0% EV
-130
ML AWAY
-37.7% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
+33.7% EV
+104
ML HOME
+33.2% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-16.9% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.9 runs
24.6% win
BAL F5
3.8 runs
63.2% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
54.7%
YRFI
45.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson 3BDAY-TO-DAY
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE51.4% WR (n=216)
Model projects BAL 71.3% with 33.2% ML edge, but Trevor Rogers (6.79 ERA, C+ grade) is objectively worse than Logan Gilbert (4.09 ERA, B grade); high edge + high prob historically correlates with 25% WR per calibration data, indicating overconfidence.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch massively against model: Gilbert 4.09 ERA (B grade, stuff 0.527) vs Rogers 6.79 ERA (C+ grade, stuff 0.246)
- 33.2% ML edge historically underperforms: 15-25% edge bucket shows only 25% WR across 4 tracked bets
- Zone profile: MLB|ml|home|any|any 51.4% WR across 216 bets — merely neutral despite model's extreme confidence
- Temperature 84F, park factor 1.03, wind neutral — no weather edge to justify overconfidence
Risk Factors
- High edge (33%+) with high probability (66%+) = worst historical win rate per calibration; model likely overconfident
- Rogers has allowed runs consistently (6.79 ERA baseline) despite home field advantage
- Away pitcher Gilbert is legitimate B grade with strong command (0.703)
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 71.3%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
8.5
+6.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →