SEA vs BAL prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.8 - SEA 6.9. SEA is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
BAL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SEA
6.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALSEA
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
579
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 4.8 — SEA 6.9
Actual
BAL 7 — SEA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF32%97 mph19% whiff
ST27%87 mph26% whiff
SI19%97 mph12% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF40%94 mph20% whiff
FS20%86 mph15% whiff
SL15%83 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.999
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.08ERA
3.65FIP
8.84K/9
3.55BB/9
1.32WHIP
BAL
4.42ERA
3.90FIP
8.83K/9
3.46BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.3% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-30.6% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-25.9% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+24.2% EV
+150
ML HOME
-21.3% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
+18.2% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
4.0 runs
61.7% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
27.5% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
47.6%
YRFI
52.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.25
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Rodden 2BDAY-TO-DAY
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Adley Rutschman CDAY-TO-DAY
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE47.9% WR (n=7)
Market significantly undervaluing SEA: George Kirby (4.36 ERA, B- grade command) beats Brandon Young (3.75 ERA, C+ stuff/command). Model 59.4% SEA away vs market 52.4% — clear away value. OVER 9.0 also +16.5% edge. F5 ML away +18.2% reinforces early inning dominance.
Key Factors
- SP NEARLY EVEN: Kirby (4.36 ERA, B- command) vs Young (3.75 ERA, C+ stuff) — Kirby decent but not dominant. Edge small on SP. Model's 59.4% suggests other factors (context, bullpen, weather).
- OVER 9.0 huge: Model 11.68 total vs market 9.0 = 2.68 run gap (2nd largest after PIT). Both offenses explosive; Camden Yards 1.03 park factor slightly favorable.
- F5 ML +18.2%: Model 64.9% F5 away vs market ~46%. Early inning is SHARP angle; SEA should attack early.
- Run line edge +24.2%: Model 49.7% away -1.5 vs market ~42%. Spread undervalues SEA by 1+ run.
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone away ML shows 47.9% WR (n=7) — tiny sample, below breakeven. Away ML historically weak even with positive edges.
- BAL improving team; Young is serviceable (3.75 ERA). Home field matters.
- Primetime game (22:36 UTC) — crowd effects could favor BAL, offset SEA road value.
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 62.0%
-48.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.3 pts
Total
9.0
+16.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →