Who is predicted to win SEA vs BAL on June 11, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SEA is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is BAL 4.9 - SEA 6.5.

How did SEA vs BAL on June 11, 2026 end?

Final score: BAL 7 - SEA 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SEA vs BAL Prediction & Picks — June 11, 2026

SEA vs BAL prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.9 - SEA 6.5. SEA is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.

BAL

4.9

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

SEA

6.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

38.5%

61.6%

BALSEA

+1.5

Run Line (BAL)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (2,284 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

SEA

568

BAL

357

Projected

BAL 4.9 — SEA 6.5

Actual

BAL 7 — SEA 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Bryan Woo R

SEA

FF48%96 mph22% whiff

SI17%95 mph8% whiff

ST15%84 mph37% whiff

Kyle Bradish R

BAL

SI30%94 mph8% whiff

SL28%87 mph31% whiff

CU22%84 mph41% whiff

Weather Impact

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

96°F7 mph wind

HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005

thin air, 6mph in

Bullpen Comparison

SEA

3.23ERA

3.74FIP

8.75K/9

3.61BB/9

1.34WHIP

BAL

4.46ERA

3.89FIP

8.86K/9

3.48BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-45.2% EV

-175

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-36.6% EV

-104

TOTAL OVER 8.5

+25.2% EV

-118

F5_ML HOME

-23.3% EV

-104

ML HOME

-19.5% EV

-102

F5 OVER 4.5

+18.7% EV

-110

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SEA F5

3.8 runs

56.3% win

BAL F5

2.5 runs

31.8% win

F5 Total

6.3

NRFI

48.1%

YRFI

51.9%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.24

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.5

Over 0.5 HR

96%

Over 1.5 HR

85%

No HR

Luke Raley SEA30.0%

ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%

ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Julio Rodríguez SEA30.0%

ISO: 0.098 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Bryan Woo

0.0 K projected

SEA | K/9: 0.0

Kyle Bradish

0.0 K projected

BAL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SEA8 injured

Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL

Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL

Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL

Brock Rodden 2BDAY-TO-DAY

J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL

Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL

+2 more

BAL8 injured

Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL

Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL

Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL

Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL

Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY

Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEAN +1RED ZONE43.3% WR (n=100)

TOTALS OVER 8.5 has a 25.2% edge (model 67.7% vs market 53.6% implied on 8.5 total) driven by hot weather (96.1F, adds 0.8+ runs) and SEA's pitching advantage (Woo 4.04 ERA vs Bradish 4.20 ERA) keeping the game competitive. However, the 25.2% edge exceeds calibration max (20%), suggesting possible model overconfidence. Despite the warning, the fundamental case (heat + pitcher advantage + market underpricing) is sound. Recommend LEAN at reduced units (0.75x) to manage edge risk.

Key Factors

Heat-driven totals surge: 96.1F temperature adds 0.8-1.0 runs to neutral baseline; market total 8.5 ignores summer heat effect entirely
Model projects 11.39 mean runs vs market 8.5: 2.89-run gap (25.2% edge) is the largest totals gap on the slate; this is either a massive market miss or model overconfidence
Away favorite SEA ML is in RED zone: 43.3% WR on away ML bets (100-sample) and 39.5% on combo away bets signals away favorites are trap plays; avoid SEA ML despite 10.3% edge
Pitcher matchup slightly favors SEA: Woo 4.04 ERA (B/C+, elite 4.0% BB rate) vs Bradish 4.20 ERA (C+/C+, 11.7% BB rate) = modest 0.16-run edge to SEA, not enough to overcome away favorite discount

Risk Factors

25.2% edge exceeds 20% calibration cap, indicating likely model overconfidence; historically, when edges exceed 20%, actual win rate drops to 50-55% despite high theoretical edge
RED zone on away ML (39.5% WR) suggests market is correct on this game; model's away favorite lean contradicts the profitable RED zone signal
Market may have real information (bullpen fatigue, recent trends) not reflected in pitcher profiles; conservative approach suggests splitting the edge (betting OVER only, not ML)

TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEWEATHER IMPACT

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SEA 61.6%

-45.2 pts

Run Line