SEA vs CLE prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.7 - SEA 5.0. SEA is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESEA
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 4.7 — SEA 5.0
Actual
CLE 1 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF46%95 mph26% whiff
SL25%85 mph28% whiff
SI16%95 mph8% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF39%92 mph14% whiff
CH28%80 mph38% whiff
CU22%80 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
70°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.1% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-21.7% EV
-105
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+11.9% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.6% EV
+106
ML HOME
-3.6% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.5 runs
40.1% win
CLE F5
2.8 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
54.1%
YRFI
45.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Dominic Canzone SEA28.0%
ISO: 0.157 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x
Travis Bazzana CLE27.9%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Colt Emerson SEA23.9%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
CLE5 injured
Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=244)
Even pitching (Cantillo 8.4 K/9, Castillo 21.5% K rate), model coin flip. But OVER 7.5 edge 11.9% at 59.8% model prob is HIGH_EDGE_WARNING. Totals market disabled. Market price (-107/-107) fair on direction, but high OVER edge is untrustworthy. CAUTION.
Key Factors
- SP MATCHED: Cantillo (8.4 K/9, B- grade) vs Castillo (21.5% K rate, B- grade) — elite control both sides
- Model COIN FLIP: 49.9% home, 50.1% away — directional edge non-existent. Market -107/-107 correct.
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING on OVER: 11.9% edge at 59.8% model prob — EXCEEDS disabled totals market reliability
- Total discrepancy: Market 7.5 vs model 9.65 (2.15 run gap) — implausibly large for matched SP
- Wind: 5.2 mph neutral, park 1.0 (neutral). No environmental boost to justify high OVER edge.
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: Historical data shows >15% edges fail; 11.9% edge still elevated risk
- Totals market disabled (F grade, 46.7% WR) — all OVER/UNDER edges today are suspect
- Market 7.5 low suggests sharp money aware of model inflation; respect market
HIGH EDGE WARNINGTOTALS DISABLEDMODEL MARKET CONFLICTCOIN FLIP DIRECTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.1%
-37.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.1 pts
Total
7.5
+11.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →