SEA vs CLE prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.8 - SEA 4.0. SEA is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
CLE
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESEA
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.8 — SEA 4.0
Actual
CLE 4 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF37%96 mph19% whiff
SL23%86 mph36% whiff
FS14%81 mph41% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF29%93 mph16% whiff
FC25%88 mph20% whiff
SI19%93 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
76°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.9% EV
-141
F5_ML AWAY
-18.1% EV
-161
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.5% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-14.4% EV
-154
F5_ML HOME
+12.8% EV
+128
ML HOME
+10.6% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
40.5% win
CLE F5
2.3 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.0%
YRFI
46.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Colt Emerson SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.370 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA27.1%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
CLE5 injured
Chase DeLauter RF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE55.6% WR (n=131)
CLE home 49.8% (model) vs 43.5% market (home +129 odds) — UNDERDOG HOME. SEA away 50.2% (model) vs 60.6% market = away fave per market. Model near-even (50.2%), market heavily favors away (-153 odds). Logan Gilbert (SEA away, B pitcher, 0.63 overall, 27% K) vs Slade Cecconi (CLE home, B- pitcher, 0.433 overall, 17.9% K). AWAY pitcher much better (0.63 vs 0.433, 27% K vs 17.9% = 9% K gap favors away). Model's near-even lean contradicts away pitcher advantage; market correctly prices away fave.
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rate edge (away): Gilbert 27% K vs Cecconi 17.9% K — 9% gap, second-largest advantage today
- Grade edge (away): Gilbert B vs Cecconi B- — quality 0.197 points ahead
- Market consensus: -153 away (60.6% implied) reflects sharp respect for Gilbert
- Model error: 50.2% home contradicts away pitcher dominance
- Game tied early: No advantage yet shown
Risk Factors
- Model vs market conflict: Model undervalues away pitcher by ~10%
- Home underdog (market +129): Historically risky, low sample
- YELLOW zone combo 59% WR: Better than away RED, but home underdog unusual
PITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICTGAME IN PROGRESSYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.2%
-31.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →