SEA vs CLE prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.5 - SEA 4.2. CLE is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESEA
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
CLE
346
Projected
CLE 4.5 — SEA 4.2
Actual
CLE 6 — SEA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF38%95 mph21% whiff
SI25%95 mph10% whiff
ST19%77 mph34% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST25%87 mph42% whiff
FF23%97 mph26% whiff
CU22%83 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.4% EV
-208
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-21.7% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+13.3% EV
-105
F5 OVER 3.5
+11.5% EV
-152
ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.4% EV
+172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.3 runs
39.2% win
CLE F5
2.7 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.2% WR (n=5)
Model projects OVER 7.5 at 58.1% with 13.3% edge (market implies 46.8%), creating actionable totals value. Gavin Williams (B grade, 10.3 K/9) matches strong command but both pitchers sub-elite; combined lineups and bullpen volatility (CLE 3.52 ERA vs SEA 3.37 ERA) suggest game lands 8.5-9.0 runs. Cold temp (75F) mild offset.
Key Factors
- Pitching: Williams (10.3 K/9) vs Hancock (8.5 K/9) — both strikeout-oriented but Williams superior. Neither elite, both B-range grade.
- Bullpen: CLE 3.52 ERA vs SEA 3.37 ERA — SEA slight edge in relief, favors under if game stays close, but over wins if early run-scoring occurs
- Temperature 75F = neutral; no weather impact on run totals
- Model 8.75 runs vs market 7.5 = +1.25 run edge = 13.3% on over 7.5
- F5 OVER 3.5 shows 11.5% edge — both half and full game overs offer value
Risk Factors
- Totals market DISABLED on 6/28 due to over/under catastrophic losses; historical zone data unreliable. CAUTION: Use with reduced units.
- Calibration shows OVER bets 46.3% WR long-term (grade F) — suggests model chases overs. Reduce confidence.
- NRFI (no run first inning) 52.0% — early scoring not guaranteed
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 55.0%
-31.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.4 pts
Total
7.5
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →