SEA vs CWS prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.7 - SEA 4.0. SEA is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
CWS
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSSEA
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 3.7 — SEA 4.0
Actual
CWS 8 — SEA 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF36%95 mph25% whiff
SI25%95 mph10% whiff
ST23%78 mph36% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
FF38%94 mph20% whiff
KC23%79 mph17% whiff
SI14%94 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
63°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.031
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.45ERA
3.25FIP
9.74K/9
3.88BB/9
1.40WHIP
CWS
4.72ERA
4.68FIP
8.63K/9
5.46BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.0% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.6% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-15.4% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-10.5% EV
-143
NRFI NRFI
+7.5% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
43.7% win
CWS F5
1.9 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.1%
YRFI
36.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
10%
Brendan Donovan SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.326 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE46.4% WR (n=142)
Coin flip matchup (SEA 51.3% vs CWS 48.7% model) with RED zone away underdog (46.4% WR) and minimal pitcher mismatch (Hancock 2.8 ERA, Burke 2.94 ERA = 0.14 diff) — despite +4.2% ML edge and +7.5% NRFI, market pricing is well-balanced.
Key Factors
- SP quality parity: Hancock 2.8 ERA (B grade, 28.1% K, 3.8% BB elite) vs Burke 2.94 ERA (B-, 21.6% K) = negligible 0.14 ERA gap; no pitcher advantage
- RED zone away ML: 46.4% WR overcomes +4.2% edge claim; market correctly pricing road dog
- NRFI dominant: 60.7% model prob (+7.5% edge) — first-inning scoreless much cleaner than directional play
- Slight wind advantage CWS: 6mph out (1.031 total multiplier) vs neutral baseline; minimal run inflation
Risk Factors
- Away underdog systematic underperformance (RED zone) — hard to overcome 4.2% edge with historical WR of 46.4%
- Both pitchers too good for either side to have clear advantage; variance dominates
- CWS home crowd advantage nominal on neutral park
RED ZONE AWAY MLPITCHER PARITYSKIP NEUTRALNRFI ALTERNATIVE SUPERIOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.3%
-37.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.0 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →