SEA vs CWS prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.0 - SEA 3.8. CWS is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
CWS
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSSEA
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.0 — SEA 3.8
Actual
CWS 6 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF44%95 mph22% whiff
SL26%85 mph33% whiff
SI19%95 mph7% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
FF31%96 mph12% whiff
FC20%91 mph18% whiff
ST19%83 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
71°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.986
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.57ERA
3.32FIP
9.72K/9
3.79BB/9
1.41WHIP
CWS
4.95ERA
4.83FIP
8.56K/9
5.35BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-33.0% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.1% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.7% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+22.7% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-14.7% EV
-133
F5 UNDER 5.5
+13.8% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
38.7% win
CWS F5
2.3 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 19.6% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.6% WR (n=244)
Model projects 7.76 total runs but market prices 9.5. The 22.7% UNDER edge (65.6% model prob) is massive and driven by two WEAK starting pitchers (Anthony Kay 6.16 ERA, Luis Castillo 6.79 ERA). Both have poor K-rates and command issues. The market is overbaking this total expecting run scoring; model correctly identifies pitcher weakness suppresses runs despite Seattle's decent lineup.
Key Factors
- UNDER edge 22.7%: Model 7.76 total vs market 9.5 = 1.74 run gap. Second-largest UNDER edge today.
- Pitcher weakness: Kay (6.16 ERA, 14.5% K, C grade) and Castillo (6.79 ERA, 19.2% K, C grade). Both bottom-tier starters.
- Zone: YELLOW 50.6% WR on totals. Large edges not well-supported historically.
- UNDER DISABLED: Calibration grade F. Major warning flag.
- Weather: 71.3F, 10mph in wind (neutral). No weather adjustment needed.
Risk Factors
- UNDER market disabled (grade F, 46.9% WR). Model systematically wrong on unders.
- Two bad pitchers can still produce low-scoring games if both teams are defensive or if bullpen dominates late.
- Edge is 22.7%, which is in the 'high edge weakness' range (25% WR in 15%+ bucket).
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 53.4%
-31.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.1 pts
Total
9.5
+22.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →