SEA vs CWS prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.1 - SEA 3.5. CWS is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
CWS
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSSEA
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEACWS W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
245
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.1 — SEA 3.5
Actual
CWS 2 — SEA 1
Pick Results
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Drew Romo OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.49u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF30%95 mph14% whiff
SL20%86 mph36% whiff
FS14%81 mph36% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph20% whiff
CH18%90 mph12% whiff
FC16%90 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
57°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.036
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.60ERA
3.42FIP
9.70K/9
3.81BB/9
1.41WHIP
CWS
4.88ERA
4.81FIP
8.51K/9
5.34BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-29.8% EV
+125
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-25.8% EV
-149
F5_ML AWAY
-22.5% EV
-135
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-21.9% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-21.1% EV
-133
ML HOME
+17.5% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.7 runs
33.6% win
CWS F5
2.3 runs
48.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Davis Martin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.340 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.1% WR (n=142)
Market has mispriced this game: SEA favored at -133 (57.1%) despite CWS having Martin (1.77 ERA, 25.4% K, elite ace) vs Gilbert (4.64 ERA, weak #4). Public is overweighting SEA recent play; sharp model identifies CWS value. Model 58.2% (home) vs market 46.7% (away) = 11.5% edge to CWS.
Key Factors
- MASSIVE pitcher advantage CWS: Martin 1.77 ERA, 25.4% K (elite ace, A- command) vs Gilbert 4.64 ERA (#4 starter). Typical ~3 run swing to home.
- Market has SEA FAVORED (-133) despite CWS having superior pitcher — classic reverse line move (public betting opposite of correct side)
- Model 58.2% (home) vs market 46.7% (away) = 11.5% edge to CWS. Within reasonable range, not overconfident.
- Zone profile YELLOW (53.1% WR) for home ML, confirming home favorites are profitable in this edge range (10-15%)
Risk Factors
- Public money on SEA (favorite) may indicate recent form or lineup strength not captured by pitcher-centric model
- Unusual weather: 56.8°F + 10.8 mph OUT (tailwind) creates offsetting effects (cold suppresses, wind helps)
- Risk of line closing if sharp money recognizes Martin ace value
PITCHER MISMATCHREVERSE LINE MOVESHARP SUPPORT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 58.2%
-25.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-25.8 pts
Total
8.0
+1.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →