SEA vs DET prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.8 - SEA 4.6. DET is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
DET
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETSEA
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
DET
357
Projected
DET 4.8 — SEA 4.6
Actual
DET 7 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph22% whiff
SI17%95 mph6% whiff
ST15%84 mph37% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI47%94 mph9% whiff
CU29%78 mph30% whiff
CH19%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
85°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.84ERA
3.44FIP
8.93K/9
3.25BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.61ERA
4.42FIP
8.64K/9
4.40BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.2% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
-19.6% EV
-132
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-19.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.2% EV
+142
ML AWAY
-14.0% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
+11.9% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.2 runs
36.2% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
48.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.269 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.97x
Julio Rodríguez SEA28.4%
ISO: 0.097 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
DET8 injured
Trey Sweeney SS60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Kenley Jansen RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE54.0% WR (n=10)
HOME DET dogs at +106 offer 8.1% ML edge (52.5% prob) — enabled market allows direct bet. Woo (B-grade, 3.72 ERA) LOSES to Valdez (C+, 4.74 ERA), but DET's 54.1% home win prob and market mispricing (only 48.5% implied) creates underdog value. ALSO: OVER 7.5 edge is +8.7% (58.8% prob) in enabled market. Prefer run line HOME -1.5 (enabled, 52.7% WR historically) as tighter risk.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Woo (B-grade, 3.72 ERA, 24% K-rate, 0.043 BB) is legitimate arm vs Valdez (C+, 4.74 ERA, 18% K-rate). SEA has advantage
- Home field swing: DET at home 54.1% win prob (from -1.5 RL) — market priced away dog SEA at 55.2% implied, undervaluing home
- ML edge 8.1% in enabled market (thresholds 15% for ML) — sits at optimal 5-10% range with 54% historical zone WR
- Weather: Hot 85.4°F, 11 mph wind IN (-10.6 tailwind) = slight run suppression. Totals edge 8.7% still solid, but RL is safer
- DET bullpen respectable: ERA 4.61, K/9 8.64 (league average) — no massive disadvantage
Risk Factors
- Woo is road pitcher (away) — splits not provided, but 3.72 ERA is strong regardless
- DET is mediocre offensive team — 54.1% home win prob may be inflated due to park (Comerica is neutral)
- Run line at -1.5 requires 2-run DET win — tighter margin. Prefer if taking underdog value
PITCHER MISMATCH AGAINSTUNDERDOG VALUEENABLED MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.1%
-30.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.2 pts
Total
7.5
+8.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →