SEA vs DET prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.8 - SEA 4.5. DET is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
DET
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETSEA
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
346
DET
357
Projected
DET 4.8 — SEA 4.5
Actual
DET 5 — SEA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF45%95 mph26% whiff
SL25%85 mph31% whiff
SI18%95 mph7% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%92 mph15% whiff
SL25%85 mph26% whiff
KC20%78 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
79°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.87ERA
3.50FIP
8.98K/9
3.32BB/9
1.29WHIP
DET
4.59ERA
4.41FIP
8.72K/9
4.34BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.5% EV
-200
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.1% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-8.4% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-3.5% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.6 runs
39.0% win
DET F5
2.9 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Colt Emerson SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
J.P. Crawford SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Trey Sweeney SS60-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Kenley Jansen RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.1% WR (n=351)
Model shows minimal home edge (0.8% ML, model 54.5% vs market 54.1%). Starting pitchers are rough equals: Jack Flaherty (5.73 ERA, B- stuff/command) vs Luis Castillo (5.97 ERA, B- stuff/command). Both are below-average arms. Weather is neutral (78.8F, slight tail wind 4mph). Park is neutral (1.0 factor). Bullpen: DET 4.59 ERA vs SEA 2.87 ERA — SEA has a 1.7 ERA bullpen advantage, which is MASSIVE. This should create a larger home edge, but market is pricing it fairly. No edge.
Key Factors
- SP quality similar: Flaherty 5.73 ERA (B- stuff) vs Castillo 5.97 ERA (B- stuff, better command) — 0.24 ERA gap
- SEA elite bullpen (2.87 ERA, top-3 in MLB) vs DET weaker (4.59 ERA) — 1.72 ERA swing favors away bullpen
- Home field advantage minimal: DET 1.0 park factor, 78.8F neutral, 4mph tail wind slight positive
- Model 0.8% ML edge (54.5% home vs 54.1% market) is below actionable threshold of 6%
- Home ML YELLOW zone: 51.1% WR — perfectly neutral expectation
Risk Factors
- SEA bullpen fatigue risk unknown. If SEA used heavily in recent games, 2.87 ERA could degrade significantly
- Flaherty recent form unknown — 5.73 ERA may be trending worse or better
- DET slightly undervalued if market hasn't fully credited SEA bullpen advantage, but only by ~1%
MINIMAL EDGENEUTRAL PRICINGYELLOW ZONEBULLPEN QUESTION MARK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 55.2%
-31.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →