SEA vs HOU prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.1 - SEA 4.4. SEA is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUSEA
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEAHOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.1 — SEA 4.4
Actual
HOU 1 — SEA 3
Pick Results
Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.73u
Zach Cole OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF33%97 mph17% whiff
ST25%87 mph29% whiff
SI18%97 mph6% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF32%95 mph20% whiff
CH23%89 mph37% whiff
SL15%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
72°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.68ERA
3.55FIP
9.62K/9
3.82BB/9
1.42WHIP
HOU
5.55ERA
4.96FIP
8.61K/9
5.22BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.7% EV
-143
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.8% EV
+118
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-12.9% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-12.6% EV
-156
ML AWAY
-10.9% EV
-143
ML HOME
+4.7% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.3 runs
42.9% win
HOU F5
2.2 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.315 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.315 | Barrel: 18.6% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Cole HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ferrer RPPATERNITY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.4% WR (n=284)
Model favors HOU at home slightly (49.0% vs 51.0% SEA in simulation) despite SEA's -142 market odds (58.7% implied). All edges negligible: HOU ML +4.7%, UNDER +3.7%, F5 UNDER +4.1% — all weak, near noise floor. Market appears correctly priced given pitcher matchup (Lambert 2.61 ERA slight edge, both B- grade) and warm Minute Maid environment (1.021 run multiplier).
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup: Lambert 2.61 ERA, 23.7% K-rate, 11.8% BB-rate vs Kirby 3.18 ERA, 19.0% K-rate, 6.2% BB-rate — slight HOU edge but Kirby's control is elite
- HOU ML edge only 4.7% (model 47.6% vs market 45.5%) — below 8.0% calibration threshold
- UNDER edge only 3.7% (noise floor); Minute Maid warm/humid environment supports slight over bias
- Park factor 1.021 (runs +2.1%) and HR factor 1.039 support over environment
- Both teams capable; no bullpen fatigue, no major injuries
Risk Factors
- HOU's 2.61 ERA with 11.8% BB rate is slightly concerning for control; could yield walks that become runs
- SEA market pricing (-142 = 58.7%) may be undervaluing Lambert's ERA advantage
- Warm Minute Maid environment does favor overs; market total 8.5 may be conservatively priced
WEAK EDGEPITCHER SLIGHT ADVANTAGE HOMENEUTRAL CONDITIONS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.0%
-33.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.7 pts
Total
8.5
+3.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →