SEA vs HOU prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.6 - SEA 5.4. SEA is favored with a 64.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
HOU
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUSEA
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEAHOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.6 — SEA 5.4
Actual
HOU 2 — SEA 10
Pick Results
Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.71u
Tatsuya Imai OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF51%96 mph21% whiff
SI18%95 mph6% whiff
ST14%84 mph40% whiff
Tatsuya Imai R
HOU
FF48%95 mph18% whiff
SL43%87 mph43% whiff
FS3%85 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
78°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.57ERA
3.47FIP
9.74K/9
3.77BB/9
1.41WHIP
HOU
5.48ERA
4.92FIP
8.55K/9
5.14BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.4% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-19.8% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-8.2% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.8% EV
-122
ML HOME
-4.9% EV
+168
F5_ML AWAY
+3.8% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.4 runs
59.7% win
HOU F5
1.9 runs
26.6% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Brendan Donovan SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Tatsuya Imai | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Tatsuya Imai
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ferrer RPPATERNITY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 64.5%
-43.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.4 pts
Total
8.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →