SEA vs HOU prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.4 - SEA 4.6. HOU is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
HOU
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SEA
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUSEA
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEAHOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.4 — SEA 4.6
Actual
HOU 4 — SEA 3
Pick Results
Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF41%95 mph18% whiff
FS19%84 mph27% whiff
SI17%95 mph6% whiff
Lance McCullers Jr. R
HOU
FC26%89 mph16% whiff
SI24%91 mph10% whiff
ST16%82 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
84°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.51ERA
3.44FIP
9.72K/9
3.76BB/9
1.39WHIP
HOU
5.53ERA
4.91FIP
8.32K/9
5.15BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.7% EV
-143
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.4% EV
+118
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-18.2% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.4% EV
-132
ML AWAY
-10.6% EV
-132
NRFI NRFI
+6.3% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.5 runs
41.6% win
HOU F5
2.5 runs
43.2% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Lance McCullers Jr. | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.290 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Cole HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Lance McCullers Jr.
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Ferrer RPPATERNITY
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE60.8% WR (n=5)
Lance McCullers Jr. (8.0 ERA, C+ grade, high stuff but poor command) vs Bryce Miller (B- grade, decent mix) is a toss-up; model projects 50.5% home win probability at +4.3% edge. Hot weather (84°F) and neutral park offset each other. NRFI shows +6.3% edge (53.7% prob) but home ML at +112 reflects market's balanced view. No conviction either direction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup: McCullers 8.0 ERA (C+, high stuff 0.431, command issues) vs Miller B- grade, solid mix
- Home ML edge: +4.3% (model 49.2% vs market 47.2%); minimal conviction edge
- NRFI: +6.3% edge (53.7% prob); both starters' K rates support no-run-first-inning lean
- Weather: 84°F warm (inflates ~0.5 runs), park factor 1.0 (neutral), minimal wind
Risk Factors
- McCullers' 8.0 ERA is alarming despite decent stuff; command breakdown is real risk
- Warm weather (84°F) could inflate scoring if bullpens are weak; model assumes starter dominance
- NRFI edge of +6.3% is interesting but alone insufficient for conviction play
PITCHER QUALITY MIXEDWEATHER IMPACTNEUTRAL SPOTSMALL EDGENRFI EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 50.5%
-32.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.7 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →