SEA vs KC prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.3 - SEA 5.3. SEA is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
KC
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSEA
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.3 — SEA 5.3
Actual
KC 0 — SEA 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF31%95 mph14% whiff
SL22%86 mph36% whiff
FS15%81 mph37% whiff
Noah Cameron L
KC
FF31%92 mph13% whiff
CH21%82 mph29% whiff
FC20%89 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.89ERA
3.53FIP
9.42K/9
3.39BB/9
1.33WHIP
KC
4.23ERA
4.57FIP
8.84K/9
5.04BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.2% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.8% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-9.9% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+8.0% EV
+102
F5 OVER 4.5
+5.8% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+5.1% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.0 runs
48.3% win
KC F5
2.5 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Carter Jensen KC26.6%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Julio Rodríguez SEA24.5%
ISO: 0.081 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Randy Arozarena SEA23.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=283)
KC home team at +100 odds shows mild -4.2% ML edge (market favors away slightly at -3.6% edge). OVER 8.5 edge 8.0% (53.5% prob) is in YELLOW zone but totals are disabled. Pitcher matchup is relatively balanced; no clear edge exists after accounting for calibration restrictions and zone data.
Key Factors
- Pitcher match neutral: Logan Gilbert (B grade, 0.612 score, 24.5% K-rate, 5.2% BB-rate) vs Noah Cameron (B- grade, 0.443 score, 19.3% K-rate, 7.5% BB-rate) — Gilbert elite command/K, but KC pitcher not bad either
- Model home prob 47.9% vs market 50.0% — market slightly favors home (pickem at +100), model sees away lean
- OVER 8.5 edge 8.0% (53.5% prob) is mildly positive but totals disabled — cannot pursue this edge
- Kauffman Stadium park factor 1.0 (neutral) + temperate weather (74.3F, 0.9mph tail) = offensive-neutral baseline
- SEA Victor Robles reinstated from IL — adds speed/defense but doesn't dramatically shift run expectations
Risk Factors
- Model shows 52.1% away win prob but market only 46.1% away implied; model and market significantly divergent
- If pitcher gap favors SEA (Gilbert elite), why is model only showing 52.1% away at -117? Suggests uncertainty or market knowing something
- Totals disabled — cannot pursue only clear edge (8.0% OVER)
PITCHER ADVANTAGEWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 52.1%
-43.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.2 pts
Total
8.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →