SEA vs KC prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.2 - SEA 4.3. SEA is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
KC
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSEA
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
KC
135
Projected
KC 3.2 — SEA 4.3
Actual
KC 5 — SEA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF32%97 mph18% whiff
ST26%87 mph28% whiff
SI20%97 mph12% whiff
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF27%94 mph13% whiff
SI22%94 mph0% whiff
FC16%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
79°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.83ERA
3.46FIP
9.47K/9
3.32BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.26ERA
4.64FIP
8.68K/9
5.01BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.2% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.0% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.9% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+8.5% EV
-125
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
44.9% win
KC F5
1.7 runs
35.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA24.9%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
J.P. Crawford SEA23.5%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Away underdog SEA shows model 53.3% win prob but market implied 56.5% — MODEL SHOWS AWAY LOSS (-5.6% edge on away ML). This is backward: model favors home KC despite away being listed as preferred. Home KC +110 implies 47.6%; away -129 implies 56.3%. Pitcher matchup: Kirby (B-, 8.0 K/9, 3.73 ERA) away vs Kolek (B-, 8.0 K/9, 4.58 ERA). Away pitcher is BETTER (3.73 vs 4.58 ERA gap = 0.85 runs). Yet model and market both favor home. This is DATA INTEGRITY failure. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR away: Kirby 3.73 ERA (B- grade) vs Kolek 4.58 ERA (B- grade, weak stuff 0.179). Away advantage clear.
- Model win prob 53.3% away conflicts with ML edge -5.6% AWAY — mathematical inconsistency
- Home implied 56.3% vs model 46.9% — market prices home >10% higher than model projects
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: Model output contradictory (win prob ≠ edge direction). Do not trust.
- Unknown factor driving market to price home so heavy despite away pitcher advantage
- NRFI market disabled anyway (8.5% edge) — cannot use first-inning edge
DATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 53.1%
-46.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.2 pts
Total
8.5
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →