SEA vs KC prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.2 - SEA 4.3. SEA is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
KC
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSEA
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (2,258 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
KC
135
Projected
KC 3.2 — SEA 4.3
Actual
KC 5 — SEA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF32%97 mph18% whiff
ST26%87 mph28% whiff
SI20%97 mph12% whiff
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF27%94 mph13% whiff
SI22%94 mph0% whiff
FC16%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
79°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.83ERA
3.46FIP
9.47K/9
3.32BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.26ERA
4.64FIP
8.68K/9
5.01BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.2% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.0% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.9% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+8.5% EV
-125
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
44.9% win
KC F5
1.7 runs
35.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA24.9%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
J.P. Crawford SEA23.5%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.2% WR (n=165)
Away underdog SEA shows model 53.3% win prob but market implied 56.5% — MODEL SHOWS AWAY LOSS (-5.6% edge on away ML). This is backward: model favors home KC despite away being listed as preferred. Home KC +110 implies 47.6%; away -129 implies 56.3%. Pitcher matchup: Kirby (B-, 8.0 K/9, 3.73 ERA) away vs Kolek (B-, 8.0 K/9, 4.58 ERA). Away pitcher is BETTER (3.73 vs 4.58 ERA gap = 0.85 runs). Yet model and market both favor home. This is DATA INTEGRITY failure. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR away: Kirby 3.73 ERA (B- grade) vs Kolek 4.58 ERA (B- grade, weak stuff 0.179). Away advantage clear.
- Model win prob 53.3% away conflicts with ML edge -5.6% AWAY — mathematical inconsistency
- Home implied 56.3% vs model 46.9% — market prices home >10% higher than model projects
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: Model output contradictory (win prob ≠ edge direction). Do not trust.
- Unknown factor driving market to price home so heavy despite away pitcher advantage
- NRFI market disabled anyway (8.5% edge) — cannot use first-inning edge
DATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCH AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 53.1%
-46.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.2 pts
Total
8.5
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →