SEA vs KC prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.6 - SEA 5.1. SEA is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
KC
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSEA
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.6 — SEA 5.1
Actual
KC 8 — SEA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%95 mph7% whiff
ST15%84 mph37% whiff
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI21%91 mph12% whiff
FF17%92 mph14% whiff
FC15%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
78°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.79ERA
3.48FIP
9.40K/9
3.40BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.26ERA
4.64FIP
8.68K/9
5.01BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.9% EV
-161
ML HOME
-17.7% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
-13.8% EV
+108
ML AWAY
+8.2% EV
-127
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+6.6% EV
+132
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-5.0% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.7 runs
50.6% win
KC F5
1.9 runs
34.0% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Luke Raley SEA26.1%
ISO: 0.306 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC22.1%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Salvador Perez KC18.4%
ISO: 0.123 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=6)
SEA away ML shows +8.2% edge (model 60.4% vs market 55.9%) — Bryan Woo (3.79 ERA, B grade) outpitches Seth Lugo (unknown ERA, B- grade). Away favorite scenario typically strong (away dogs are RED zone but away favs are slightly better). Market undervaluing SEA's pitching advantage.
Key Factors
- Bryan Woo (SEA SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.79 (solid), 23.2% K-rate, B grade. Above-average pitcher quality.
- Seth Lugo (KC SP) unknown Bayesian ERA, B- grade, 7.9 K/9. Good but not elite. ~0.5 ERA gap favors SEA.
- SEA away favorable: 62% win rate on away favorites (n=25 historical). This combo is better than raw away stats.
- Weather: 78.3F warm air, minimal wind. Slight over lean but model already accounts for it (8.71 total).
- KC beat SEA yesterday 8-6 (per ESPN news) — SEA may be frustrated, but fresh pitching matchup resets dynamics.
Risk Factors
- Away ML in general is RED zone (44.5% WR), even though SEA is away favorite (better combo). Zone drag applies.
- 8.2% edge is solid but modest; variance makes it a 50-50 coin flip on any individual game
- KC Royals showed resilience yesterday (Salvador Perez walk-off). Home team momentum could be factor.
PITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 62.0%
-47.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →