SEA vs KC prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.6 - SEA 5.1. SEA is favored with a 62.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
KC
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSEA
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.6 — SEA 5.1
Actual
KC 8 — SEA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF49%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%95 mph7% whiff
ST15%84 mph37% whiff
Seth Lugo R
KC
SI21%91 mph12% whiff
FF17%92 mph14% whiff
FC15%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
78°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.79ERA
3.48FIP
9.40K/9
3.40BB/9
1.31WHIP
KC
4.26ERA
4.64FIP
8.68K/9
5.01BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.9% EV
-161
ML HOME
-17.7% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
-13.8% EV
+108
ML AWAY
+8.2% EV
-127
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+6.6% EV
+132
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-5.0% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.7 runs
50.6% win
KC F5
1.9 runs
34.0% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Luke Raley SEA26.1%
ISO: 0.306 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC22.1%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Salvador Perez KC18.4%
ISO: 0.123 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
SEA away ML shows +8.2% edge (model 60.4% vs market 55.9%) — Bryan Woo (3.79 ERA, B grade) outpitches Seth Lugo (unknown ERA, B- grade). Away favorite scenario typically strong (away dogs are historically weak but away favs are slightly better). Market undervaluing SEA's pitching advantage.
Key Factors
- Bryan Woo (SEA SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.79 (solid), 23.2% K-rate, B grade. Above-average pitcher quality.
- Seth Lugo (KC SP) unknown Bayesian ERA, B- grade, 7.9 K/9. Good but not elite. ~0.5 ERA gap favors SEA.
- SEA away favorable: 62% win rate on away favorites (n=25 historical). This combo is better than raw away stats.
- Weather: 78.3F warm air, minimal wind. Slight over lean but model already accounts for it (8.71 total).
- KC beat SEA yesterday 8-6 (per ESPN news) — SEA may be frustrated, but fresh pitching matchup resets dynamics.
Risk Factors
- Away ML in general is historically weak, even though SEA is away favorite (better combo). historical support drag applies.
- 8.2% edge is solid but modest; variance makes it a 50-50 coin flip on any individual game
- KC Royals showed resilience yesterday (Salvador Perez walk-off). Home team momentum could be factor.
PITCHER MISMATCHFAVORABLE MARKET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 62.0%
-47.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →