SEA vs MIN prediction for April 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.1 - SEA 3.7. SEA is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
MIN
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSEA
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
MIN
135
Pick Results
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF30%96 mph15% whiff
SL18%86 mph35% whiff
FS15%80 mph37% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF44%92 mph24% whiff
SI14%92 mph9% whiff
KC12%78 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
50°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.25ERA
3.68FIP
9.03K/9
3.70BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIN
4.74ERA
4.20FIP
7.94K/9
4.64BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.6% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.5% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.5% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 3.5
+13.2% EV
+114
F5_ML HOME
-11.9% EV
-102
NRFI NRFI
+7.2% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.0 runs
44.9% win
MIN F5
1.6 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Naylor SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.141 | Barrel: 5.3% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Travis Adams RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
Julian Merryweather RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.3% WR (n=652)
Logan Gilbert (4.71 ERA, B grade, 25.4% K rate) vs Joe Ryan (4.21 ERA, B- grade, 23.3% K rate) — Both are mediocre starters; away pitcher actually has slightly BETTER ERA (4.71 < 4.21 is worse, so Ryan is worse); model shows SEA 55.3% vs market 55.2% = -0.8% edge on SEA ML; market is fairly priced; UNDER 7.5 shows 14.5% edge but totals DISABLED; SKIP due to fair pricing.
Key Factors
- Both pitchers mediocre: Gilbert 4.71 ERA (B grade), Ryan 4.21 ERA (B- grade) — 0.5 ERA gap favors home but small
- K rate gap minimal: Gilbert 25.4% vs Ryan 23.3% = 2.1% gap (statistically noise)
- Model edge -0.8% on SEA ML (favoring MIN) is within noise threshold
- UNDER 7.5 shows 14.5% edge (59.9% model prob) but totals are disabled (46.9% WR historical)
- Cold weather (50.5F, 10.7mph winds neutral) slightly suppresses runs but argument is weak
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers have similar stats; lineup matchups and bullpen fatigue matter more than we can see
- Cold weather could be more impactful than modeled
MEDIOCRE PITCHERSFAIRLY PRICEDTOTALS DISABLEDNO ML EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 55.3%
-44.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.6 pts
Total
7.5
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →