SEA vs MIN prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 3.1 - SEA 3.2. MIN is favored with a 50.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
MIN
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSEA
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
MIN
135
Projected
MIN 3.1 — SEA 3.2
Actual
MIN 3 — SEA 5
Pick Results
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF37%97 mph19% whiff
SL22%87 mph29% whiff
SI18%97 mph7% whiff
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF48%96 mph10% whiff
FC21%89 mph32% whiff
FS20%90 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
50°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 1.000
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.10ERA
3.58FIP
8.93K/9
3.53BB/9
1.31WHIP
MIN
5.02ERA
4.33FIP
7.85K/9
4.63BB/9
1.55WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-39.9% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.4% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.3% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+21.9% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.5% EV
-139
F5_ML AWAY
-12.1% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.6 runs
37.7% win
MIN F5
1.7 runs
40.0% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
68.5%
YRFI
31.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.372 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.99x
Luke Raley SEA28.3%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Brooks Lee MIN27.1%
ISO: 0.181 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Garrett Acton RP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Travis Adams RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Laweryson RP15-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Cory Lewis SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.4%
-36.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.4 pts
Total
8.0
+21.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →