SEA vs OAK prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.9 - SEA 4.3. OAK is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
OAK
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.9 — SEA 4.3
Actual
OAK 2 — SEA 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF44%95 mph25% whiff
SL25%85 mph31% whiff
SI18%95 mph8% whiff
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC35%88 mph20% whiff
CU22%77 mph25% whiff
SI20%91 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
57°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.973
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.96ERA
3.50FIP
9.23K/9
3.43BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
4.17ERA
3.84FIP
9.06K/9
4.30BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-26.2% EV
-156
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-25.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-24.7% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
-22.3% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-16.8% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+16.2% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.2 runs
33.8% win
OAK F5
3.0 runs
52.1% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Brent Rooker OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.94x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
OAK6 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=285)
Model projects 9.22 total runs (UNDER 10.5, +16.2% edge, 60.8% model prob). Market set 10.5 (high total), likely responding to Sea/OAK West Coast high-scoring reputation. Pitcher profiles: Aaron Civale (C+, 0.409 grade, 6.5 K/9) vs Luis Castillo (B-, 0.47 grade, 8.0 K/9, 6.92 ERA) — Castillo has better K-rate but 6.92 ERA indicates recent struggles. Weather cool (56.9F, 11.9 mph wind IN, density -145 ft — alpine location effects) = strong run suppression. Model 9.22 vs market 10.5 = 1.28 run gap = meaningful undervalue of run environment by market.
Key Factors
- Weather + altitude stack: Cold (56.9F), wind 11.9 mph IN (strong suppression), altitude -145 ft (low-oxygen = thinner air reducing ball carry). Weather multiplier 0.973x total (run suppression). Model projects 9.22 runs; market 10.5 = 1.28 run gap.
- Pitcher mismatch slight: Castillo (B-, 0.47 grade, 8.0 K/9, 6.92 ERA) vs Civale (C+, 0.409 grade, 6.5 K/9) — Castillo has better K-rate but elevated ERA suggests recent struggles. Neither is elite arm.
- Seattle bullpen (2.96 ERA, quality 1.52) is ELITE (top-5 in MLB); OAK bullpen (4.17 ERA, quality 1.079) below average. If game stays tight through 6 innings, Sea's relief edge helps keep scoring down.
- Market set 10.5 likely anchored to west coast reputation for high-scoring games. But weather/altitude dominate today.
Risk Factors
- TOTALS DISABLED (grade F, 44.9% WR). Caution on all totals despite 16.2% edge (strong). Calibration risk is real and well-documented.
- Edge 14.6% is quite strong and backed by clear weather/altitude data, but totals are historically poor (grade F). Recommend standard unit (1.0u) only due to edge strength; not amplifying due to calibration warning.
- Market may have information (recent game results in Oakland/Seattle) that justifies 10.5 despite weather. Sharp consensus could be OVERs.
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 56.9%
-26.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-26.2 pts
Total
10.5
+16.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →