SEA vs OAK prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.9 - SEA 4.3. OAK is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
OAK
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.9 — SEA 4.3
Actual
OAK 2 — SEA 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF44%95 mph25% whiff
SL25%85 mph31% whiff
SI18%95 mph8% whiff
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC35%88 mph20% whiff
CU22%77 mph25% whiff
SI20%91 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
57°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.973
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.96ERA
3.50FIP
9.23K/9
3.43BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
4.17ERA
3.84FIP
9.06K/9
4.30BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-26.2% EV
-156
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-25.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-24.7% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
-22.3% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-16.8% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+16.2% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.2 runs
33.8% win
OAK F5
3.0 runs
52.1% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
53.4%
YRFI
46.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Brent Rooker OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.194 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 0.94x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Gabe Speier RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
OAK6 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 9.22 total runs (UNDER 10.5, +16.2% edge, 60.8% model prob). Market set 10.5 (high total), likely responding to Sea/OAK West Coast high-scoring reputation. Pitcher profiles: Aaron Civale (C+, 0.409 grade, 6.5 K/9) vs Luis Castillo (B-, 0.47 grade, 8.0 K/9, 6.92 ERA) — Castillo has better K-rate but 6.92 ERA indicates recent struggles. Weather cool (56.9F, 11.9 mph wind IN, density -145 ft — alpine location effects) = strong run suppression. Model 9.22 vs market 10.5 = 1.28 run gap = meaningful undervalue of run environment by market.
Key Factors
- Weather + altitude stack: Cold (56.9F), wind 11.9 mph IN (strong suppression), altitude -145 ft (low-oxygen = thinner air reducing ball carry). Weather multiplier 0.973x total (run suppression). Model projects 9.22 runs; market 10.5 = 1.28 run gap.
- Pitcher mismatch slight: Castillo (B-, 0.47 grade, 8.0 K/9, 6.92 ERA) vs Civale (C+, 0.409 grade, 6.5 K/9) — Castillo has better K-rate but elevated ERA suggests recent struggles. Neither is elite arm.
- Seattle bullpen (2.96 ERA, quality 1.52) is ELITE (top-5 in MLB); OAK bullpen (4.17 ERA, quality 1.079) below average. If game stays tight through 6 innings, Sea's relief edge helps keep scoring down.
- Market set 10.5 likely anchored to west coast reputation for high-scoring games. But weather/altitude dominate today.
Risk Factors
- TOTALS DISABLED (grade F, 44.9% WR). Caution on all totals despite 16.2% edge (strong). Calibration risk is real and well-documented.
- Edge 14.6% is quite strong and backed by clear weather/altitude data, but totals are historically poor (grade F). Recommend standard unit (1.0u) only due to edge strength; not amplifying due to calibration warning.
- Market may have information (recent game results in Oakland/Seattle) that justifies 10.5 despite weather. Sharp consensus could be OVERs.
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 56.9%
-26.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-26.2 pts
Total
10.5
+16.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →