SEA vs OAK prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.6 - SEA 4.7. OAK is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SEA
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.6 — SEA 4.7
Actual
OAK 1 — SEA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF37%95 mph23% whiff
SI23%95 mph7% whiff
ST20%78 mph36% whiff
Gage Jump L
OAK
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
63°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.969 Total: 0.981
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.96ERA
3.50FIP
9.23K/9
3.43BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
4.15ERA
3.80FIP
9.16K/9
4.18BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.8% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-13.7% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+12.4% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.5% EV
+158
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.5 runs
40.9% win
OAK F5
2.6 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Nick Kurtz OAK25.6%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK23.6%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.94x
J.P. Crawford SEA16.1%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK7 injured
Aaron Civale SPOUT
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1N/A ZONE
CRITICAL DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE: Gage Jump, OAK home pitcher, was CALLED UP TODAY from Triple-A per ESPN news. He is a TOP PROSPECT (56 K in 38 IP = elite strikeout rate) but has NO MLB experience. Pitcher profiles show ZERO data for Jump (0 era, no grades, empty pitch mix). This is a TBD pitcher situation that makes the game unanalyzable. Model likely regressed to baseline assumptions. Emerson Hancock (SEA away, unknown but has grades: B stuff, 9.3 K-rate) is at least partially known. Market is slightly favoring OAK home (-116) despite the rookie status, which is irrational. NRFI edge is +12.4% (attractive), but overall game is too uncertain. SKIP due to data integrity failure.
Key Factors
- Gage Jump (OAK): MLB DEBUT, Prospect (56 K / 38 IP in Triple-A), NO TRACK RECORD
- Hancock (SEA): B stuff (0.415), 9.3 K-rate, career unknown quality
- NRFI edge +12.4% (attractive for early-inning suppression from rookie starter)
- Weather: Cold 62.9F (suppresses runs), 13.1 mph wind BLOWING IN (-8.2 tail-wind, suppresses scoring)
- Park factor 0.969 (Oakland neutral, slight suppression)
Risk Factors
- Gage Jump has NO MLB data — model cannot reliably project his performance
- Rookie pitcher debuts highly variable (could be brilliant or brutal)
- Cold weather + wind in suppresses scoring, but Jump's effectiveness unknown
TBD PITCHER ROOKIE DEBUTDATA INTEGRITY CRITICALGAGE JUMP CALL UPSKIP GAMENRFI ONLY ALTERNATIVE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 50.2%
-36.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.8 pts
Total
9.5
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →