SEA vs OAK prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.6 - SEA 4.7. OAK is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SEA
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.6 — SEA 4.7
Actual
OAK 1 — SEA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF37%95 mph23% whiff
SI23%95 mph7% whiff
ST20%78 mph36% whiff
Gage Jump L
OAK
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
63°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.969 Total: 0.981
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.96ERA
3.50FIP
9.23K/9
3.43BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
4.15ERA
3.80FIP
9.16K/9
4.18BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.8% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-13.7% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+12.4% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.5% EV
+158
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.5 runs
40.9% win
OAK F5
2.6 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Nick Kurtz OAK25.6%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK23.6%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.94x
J.P. Crawford SEA16.1%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK7 injured
Aaron Civale SPOUT
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1N/A ZONE
CRITICAL DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE: Gage Jump, OAK home pitcher, was CALLED UP TODAY from Triple-A per ESPN news. He is a TOP PROSPECT (56 K in 38 IP = elite strikeout rate) but has NO MLB experience. Pitcher profiles show ZERO data for Jump (0 era, no grades, empty pitch mix). This is a TBD pitcher situation that makes the game unanalyzable. Model likely regressed to baseline assumptions. Emerson Hancock (SEA away, unknown but has grades: B stuff, 9.3 K-rate) is at least partially known. Market is slightly favoring OAK home (-116) despite the rookie status, which is irrational. NRFI edge is +12.4% (attractive), but overall game is too uncertain. SKIP due to data integrity failure.
Key Factors
- Gage Jump (OAK): MLB DEBUT, Prospect (56 K / 38 IP in Triple-A), NO TRACK RECORD
- Hancock (SEA): B stuff (0.415), 9.3 K-rate, career unknown quality
- NRFI edge +12.4% (attractive for early-inning suppression from rookie starter)
- Weather: Cold 62.9F (suppresses runs), 13.1 mph wind BLOWING IN (-8.2 tail-wind, suppresses scoring)
- Park factor 0.969 (Oakland neutral, slight suppression)
Risk Factors
- Gage Jump has NO MLB data — model cannot reliably project his performance
- Rookie pitcher debuts highly variable (could be brilliant or brutal)
- Cold weather + wind in suppresses scoring, but Jump's effectiveness unknown
TBD PITCHER ROOKIE DEBUTDATA INTEGRITY CRITICALGAGE JUMP CALL UPSKIP GAMENRFI ONLY ALTERNATIVE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 50.2%
-36.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.8 pts
Total
9.5
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →