SEA vs PIT prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.9 - SEA 4.7. PIT is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
PIT
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSEA
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 4.9 — SEA 4.7
Actual
PIT 2 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF31%97 mph19% whiff
ST28%87 mph26% whiff
SI20%97 mph14% whiff
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF32%94 mph14% whiff
SI18%92 mph14% whiff
ST16%82 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
76°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.1% EV
-154
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.5% EV
+128
ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
-133
F5_ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
-130
ML HOME
+11.0% EV
+114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-10.6% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
39.7% win
PIT F5
2.6 runs
44.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Brandon Lowe PIT26.7%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Colt Emerson SEA25.7%
ISO: 0.370 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA20.6%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Dominic Canzone DHDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.7% WR (n=119)
Mitch Keller (C+, 0.402 overall, 6.8 K/9) provides negligible edge vs George Kirby (B-, 0.489, 7.9 K/9, elite command 0.703). Market prices PIT -133 away (57.1% implied) but model projects only 51.8% home WP. 11% edge on PIT ML is GREEN zone combo (56.9% WR, 67 samples) — LEAN PIT underdog value despite modest pitcher mismatch.
Key Factors
- Home ML combo zone is GREEN (56.9% WR, 67 tracked bets) — most profitable spot on slate
- Kirby (B-, 0.489, 7.9 K/9) outgrades Keller (C+, 0.402, 6.8 K/9) — market correctly favors SEA arm
- 11% edge exists but driven by home field (+5.1% historically in data), not pitcher advantage
- Wind blowing in (-2.5 mph) favors pitcher and Keller's sinker-heavy arsenal
- Pirates bullpen (4.5 ERA) weaker than Seattle (3.37 ERA) — may limit late-game upside for PIT
Risk Factors
- Kirby is legitimately better pitcher (B- vs C+) — edge reliant on home field, not arm talent
- SEA bullpen significantly better (3.37 vs 4.5 ERA) — late-game leverage favors visitors
- PIT @ home just 53.5% WP according to model — this is a coin flip with slight tilt
GREEN ZONEPITCHER MISMATCH AGAINSTNEUTRAL WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 53.5%
-28.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.1 pts
Total
8.5
+0.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →