SEA vs PIT prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.0 - SEA 4.9. PIT is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
PIT
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSEA
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 6.0 — SEA 4.9
Actual
PIT 11 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
FF48%96 mph22% whiff
SI17%96 mph8% whiff
ST14%84 mph36% whiff
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph15% whiff
CU25%85 mph40% whiff
SL23%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
79°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-34.2% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-22.2% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+22.1% EV
-123
F5_ML AWAY
-20.2% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-19.8% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.6% EV
+172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
33.4% win
PIT F5
3.4 runs
54.9% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.2%
YRFI
49.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Callihan PIT28.1%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
Massive TOTAL OVER edge of 22.1% (67.4% model vs 45.3% market). Model projects 10.86 total vs market 7.5 line — 3.36 run gap. Pitchers are balanced (Ashcraft 3.43 ERA B-grade vs Woo 4.26 ERA B-grade), so edge comes from ballpark/lineup effect rather than pitcher dominance. PIT home field + better bullpen (4.5 ERA PIT vs 3.37 ERA SEA) supports higher scoring. However, 22% edge is above optimal range for totals (calibration max cap 8% base). LEAN with caution, not BET.
Key Factors
- Pitchers balanced: Ashcraft 3.43 ERA (B-, 26.3% K-rate) vs Woo 4.26 ERA (B, 24.5% K-rate) — slight home edge but not dominant
- Bullpen edge favors overs: PIT 4.5 ERA bullpen vs SEA 3.37 ERA. PIT late-game scoring expected.
- Model 10.86 total is +3.36 above market 7.5 line — large gap suggesting market under-projecting
Risk Factors
- 22.1% edge exceeds calibration comfort zone (total max 8% standard). Over market also weak historically (46.8% WR, auto-disabled). Cap units accordingly.
- F5 over at 17.6% edge, but F5 market has varying WR. Prefer full-game total over F5 total.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 61.4%
-22.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-22.2 pts
Total
7.5
+22.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →