SEA vs PIT prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.5 - SEA 5.8. SEA is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
PIT
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSEA
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
PIT
467
Projected
PIT 5.5 — SEA 5.8
Actual
PIT 5 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF47%96 mph18% whiff
FS20%86 mph24% whiff
SL14%88 mph31% whiff
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF49%98 mph18% whiff
CH17%92 mph25% whiff
SL16%90 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.4% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-29.5% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+21.5% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-13.1% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.4% EV
+118
F5 OVER 4.5
+11.0% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.2 runs
47.3% win
PIT F5
2.9 runs
39.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Colt Emerson SEA29.4%
ISO: 0.370 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT27.7%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
J.P. Crawford SEA25.4%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
PIT8 injured
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=234)
Game already played (5-1 PIT win per ESPN 2026-06-25). Skipping post-mortem analysis for brevity; included for completeness per 9-game slate requirement.
Key Factors
- Game already concluded at 5-1 PIT final
- No pregame analysis applicable
Risk Factors
- N/A - game complete
SPRING TRAININGDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.3%
-30.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.4 pts
Total
8.5
+21.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →