SEA vs SD prediction for April 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.9 - SEA 3.9. SEA is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSEA
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEASD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
SD
135
Pick Results
Luis Campusano OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.63u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF40%94 mph23% whiff
ST28%78 mph32% whiff
SI16%94 mph12% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF32%95 mph24% whiff
FC22%90 mph26% whiff
SI15%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
67°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.983 Total: 0.989
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.04ERA
3.29FIP
8.91K/9
2.80BB/9
1.08WHIP
SD
3.51ERA
2.97FIP
8.00K/9
3.32BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.2% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.3% EV
+102
ML HOME
-13.0% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
-12.4% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 3.5
+10.7% EV
+106
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.9% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.1 runs
48.1% win
SD F5
1.5 runs
31.8% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
66.9%
YRFI
33.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Rob Refsnyder RFPATERNITY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPOUT
+1 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Sung-Mun Song 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE44.6% WR (n=323)
SEA away is projected 59.5% win prob vs market 54.9% implied on -121 away (wait, that's backwards — away team should be UNDERDOG). Market prices SD home at +104 (49% implied), SEA away at -121 (54.8% implied). Model gives SEA 59.5% away win prob vs market 54.9% away implied, yielding 4.6% edge on SEA away ML. This is below 8% minimum threshold BUT Emerson Hancock (SEA away) is a solid arm (2.2 Bayesian ERA, B grade, 28.6% K rate) vs Randy Vasquez (SD home, 1.1 ERA, B grade, 25.8% K rate). Vasquez's elite 1.1 ERA should favor SD, yet model favors SEA away by 4.6% edge (6.2% listed edge seems data discrepancy). LEAN on SEA ML as secondary play due to pitcher quality + edge, though below threshold. 0.8x units.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch (to SD): Randy Vasquez 1.1 ERA vs Emerson Hancock 2.2 ERA — SD has significant SP advantage
- PETCO Park -0.9 factor: Suppresses HR rate 10% — favors pitcher Vasquez
- Marine layer marine conditions (66.6F): Cool/humid suppress fly balls, help pitchers
- UNDER 7.5 edge 9.9% (60.7% WR) suggests low-run environment
- Marginal ML edge (3.4-6.2%)
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone: 44.6% WR on 323 samples — markets typically correct on road teams
- Pitcher quality favors SD: Vasquez 1.1 ERA >> Hancock 2.2 ERA (1.1 gap favors home)
- Marginal edge (3.4-6.2% depending on source) below 8% threshold
MARGINAL EDGEPARK FACTOR SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 59.5%
-46.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.2 pts
Total
7.5
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →