SEA vs SD prediction for April 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.8 - SEA 3.3. SEA is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
SD
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSEA
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEASD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
SD
135
Pick Results
Brendan Donovan OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF40%94 mph23% whiff
ST28%78 mph32% whiff
SI16%94 mph12% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF32%95 mph24% whiff
FC22%90 mph26% whiff
SI15%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
65°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.988
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.17ERA
3.25FIP
8.91K/9
2.74BB/9
1.12WHIP
SD
3.40ERA
2.99FIP
7.86K/9
3.35BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.2% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-41.5% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+23.9% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+23.1% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-114
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.7 runs
42.7% win
SD F5
1.4 runs
34.2% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
66.1%
YRFI
33.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Brendan Donovan SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.414 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA21.5%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Merrill SD20.4%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder RFPATERNITY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPOUT
+1 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 55.4%
-45.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.2 pts
Total
8.0
+23.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →