SEA vs SD prediction for April 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.0 - SEA 3.8. SD is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
SD
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSEA
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEASD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
SD
246
Pick Results
Brendan Donovan OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF46%92 mph8% whiff
ST25%81 mph46% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC20%89 mph15% whiff
FF18%93 mph8% whiff
KC18%76 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
65°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.975 Total: 0.984
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
2.82ERA
3.26FIP
8.72K/9
2.80BB/9
1.19WHIP
SD
3.41ERA
3.19FIP
8.08K/9
3.50BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.3% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-19.3% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.1% EV
+136
F5_ML AWAY
-17.4% EV
-139
NRFI NRFI
+14.5% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
+12.2% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.0 runs
36.8% win
SD F5
2.4 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
62.5%
YRFI
37.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Brendan Donovan SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.375 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Cal Raleigh SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 6.1% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA7 injured
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Rob Refsnyder RFPATERNITY
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPOUT
+1 more
SD8 injured
Freddy Fermin CDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE58.5% WR (n=38)
UNDER 8.5 at 12.2% edge lands in YELLOW zone with 58.5% historical WR (strong for unders). Clear SP advantage home (Buehler 5.37 ERA, C+ stuff >> Castillo 7.47 ERA, D stuff), market overvalues away at 54.6% (should be 46% home). Petco Park suppression (0.9 mult) + pitcher mismatch = sustained low scoring. UNDER is cleaner play than home ML.
Key Factors
- Walker Buehler (SD home): 5.37 ERA, C+ stuff, 18.9% K-rate—clearly superior to Castillo
- Luis Castillo (SEA away): 7.47 ERA, D stuff, 12.2% K-rate (WORST K-rate in full slate)—disaster
- UNDER edge 12.2% in YELLOW zone (58.5% WR n=38)—excellent zone for unders (rare)
- Petco Park factor 0.9 suppresses runs 10%—additional under support
- Market overvalues away (54.6%) despite inferior pitcher—away ML in RED zone historically
Risk Factors
- Home ML edge only 4.3%—below threshold; don't bet home ML
- Castillo's 12.2% K-rate is so low it could reflect recent struggles (small sample)
- Away (SEA) is likely public favorite (recent hot streak)—UNDER could be faded by public
UNDER VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORZONE QUALITYML OVERVALUATION AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 53.8%
-31.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.3 pts
Total
8.5
+12.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →