SEA vs STL prediction for April 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.5 - SEA 3.8. SEA is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
STL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSEA
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEASTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
STL
245
Pick Results
Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Jose Fermin OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
FF38%97 mph18% whiff
SL21%87 mph26% whiff
SI17%97 mph7% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
SL28%87 mph27% whiff
FF27%95 mph15% whiff
SI22%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
71°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.46ERA
3.48FIP
8.82K/9
3.28BB/9
1.39WHIP
STL
5.19ERA
4.61FIP
7.50K/9
5.43BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.6% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-25.9% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.4% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
+15.4% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-14.1% EV
-164
F5 UNDER 4.5
+11.6% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.9 runs
40.2% win
STL F5
1.8 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
65.2%
YRFI
34.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 2B10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=374)
Pitcher quality favors away (Kirby 3.21 ERA vs Pallante 4.37 ERA) but model favors home 8.2% — edge driven by bullpen/park, not SP. Market prices bullpen (STL weak 5.19 ERA) but sp mismatch suggests away has real value.
Key Factors
- Kirby 3.21 ERA, B- grade (20.5% K rate) vs Pallante 4.37 ERA, C+ grade (13.2% K rate) — Kirby clearly better SP
- Model 47.5% home vs market 43.9% — 3.6 point gap favors home but SP favors away — conflicting signals
- STL bullpen 5.19 ERA (weak, bottom 5) vs SEA 3.46 ERA (solid) — STL bullpen advantage edge minimal, actually favors away
- Weather neutral (70.6F, thin air 1.02 factor) — no weather tail
Risk Factors
- Away ML zone RED (41.2% WR, n=374) — structural disadvantage despite SP edge
- 8.2% home edge on bullpen logic when SP favors away — likely model compensation too high
- Unconfirmed lineups could shift
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER ADVANTAGE AWAYBULLPEN EDGE HOMEMIXED SIGNALS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.3%
-34.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.6 pts
Total
8.0
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →