SEA vs STL prediction for April 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - SEA 3.8. SEA is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
STL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSEA
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEASTL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
STL
135
Pick Results
Luke Raley OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF37%95 mph23% whiff
ST26%78 mph31% whiff
SI24%95 mph9% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF26%91 mph9% whiff
CH22%86 mph27% whiff
SI14%90 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.11ERA
3.61FIP
8.99K/9
3.23BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
5.20ERA
4.57FIP
7.32K/9
5.33BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.1% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-28.0% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+21.2% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+13.4% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.1% EV
+126
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.9 runs
42.3% win
STL F5
1.7 runs
37.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.273 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 2B10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Pedro Pages CDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE45.1% WR (n=569)
Market correctly priced near equilibrium (STL 46.7% vs model 47%); massive UNDER edge (21.2%) exists but DISABLED category prevents action; no enabled bet type offers sufficient edge for recommendation.
Key Factors
- ML Pick-'em: Model 47% STL vs market 46.7% — within rounding error, market pricing is correct
- UNDER edge (21.2%): Model projects 7.17 total vs market 8.5 — 1.33 run gap is significant but DISABLED
- Pitcher comparison: McGreevy (STL, 3.55 ERA, C+ quality) vs Hancock (SEA, 3.06 ERA, B quality) — SEA slightly better but not massive gap
- Environment: 78F warm, slightly favorable for overs, but UNDER edge persists despite heat
- SEA bullpen (3.11 ERA, quality 1.447) elite, better than STL (5.2 ERA, quality 0.865) — SEA advantage
Risk Factors
- UNDER disabled: Cannot recommend despite 21.2% edge
- No enabled bet type offers minimum edge thresholds
PICKEMDISABLED EDGEMARKET CONSENSUSBULLPEN ADVANTAGE SEA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 53.0%
-39.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.1 pts
Total
8.5
+21.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →