FINAL: TEX 2 — SEA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.3 - SEA 4.3 (TEX at 52.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
TEX
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXSEA
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEATEX W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.3 — SEA 4.3
Actual
TEX 2 — SEA 1
Pick Results
UNDER 7.5totalWIN+0.88u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF36%95 mph16% whiff
SL34%87 mph32% whiff
FS20%82 mph49% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF46%98 mph18% whiff
SL38%90 mph37% whiff
CH12%90 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
70°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.033
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
6.31ERA
4.28FIP
9.49K/9
5.78BB/9
1.87WHIP
TEX
3.21ERA
4.25FIP
8.37K/9
4.12BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.9% EV
-192
F5_ML HOME
-12.6% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.5% EV
+158
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.2% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
+5.2% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-3.0% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
45.0% win
TEX F5
2.1 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Brandon Nimmo TEX25.8%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA21.2%
ISO: 0.104 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX20.2%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA5 injured
Carlos Vargas RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brennen Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
TEX7 injured
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSOUT
Nabil Crismatt SPOUT
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.9% WR (n=None)
Model's 2.2% OVER edge is tiny (not actionable). Game finished TEX 2, SEA 1 (3 runs) = UNDER winner despite warm weather and favorable park conditions. Model's edge calculation was off.
Key Factors
- Pitchers roughly even: deGrom (6.25 ERA, 27.4% K) vs Gilbert (7.29 ERA, 30.8% K) — both K-heavy, run-limited
- Weather: 69.7F warm + 7mph wind OUT = favorable for overs, but pitchers override
- Market total 7.5; model 8.58 = 1.08 run gap
- Actual result: 3 runs (deGrom/Gilbert duel kept game low-scoring)
Risk Factors
- Model overestimated runs despite favorable weather — suggests pitcher quality overrides park/weather factors
- No strong edge (2.2%) makes play non-actionable anyway
- Cold starting pitchers can suppress runs early (both teams may have been cold in pregame)
MODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 52.0%
-35.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.9 pts
Total
7.5
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →