SEA vs WSH prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.0 - SEA 5.1. WSH is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
WSH
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SEA
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHSEA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,321 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
357
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.0 — SEA 5.1
Actual
WSH 8 — SEA 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF45%95 mph26% whiff
SL24%85 mph29% whiff
SI17%95 mph8% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF35%96 mph16% whiff
KC29%85 mph40% whiff
SI15%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
91°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.994
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.17ERA
3.72FIP
8.75K/9
3.63BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
4.72ERA
5.05FIP
7.72K/9
4.11BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.0% EV
-204
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-14.0% EV
-115
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.7% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
+112
ML HOME
-5.7% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+5.4% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.6 runs
38.3% win
WSH F5
3.1 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
46.3%
YRFI
53.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Colt Emerson SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.354 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Randy Arozarena LFDAY-TO-DAY
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Rodden 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=184)
OVER 9.0 at 5.4% edge is modest value in YELLOW zone, supported by 90.8F temperature (+0.5-1.0 run boost) and F5 OVER 4.5 at 7.7% edge, but Cade Cavalli (4.19 ERA) vs Luis Castillo (5.57 ERA) remains middle-tier mismatch; lean awaits confirmation.
Key Factors
- Temperature 90.8F is hottest on slate (adds ~0.7 runs on par), density altitude 2115 ft suggests better carry for fly balls
- SP mismatch slightly home-favorable: Cavalli 4.19 ERA vs Castillo 5.57 ERA = 1.38 gap, but neither elite (Cavalli 8.0 K/9, Castillo 8.0 K/9)
- F5 OVER 4.5 at 7.7% edge (model 59.2%) is cleaner play than full game; suggests early run scoring setup
- Wind 8.1 mph blowing in reduces over bias slightly (~0.2 runs), but heat compensates
- Model 10.06 total vs market 9.0 = 1.06 run gap, standard for this price range
Risk Factors
- OVER totals with 5% edge are YELLOW baseline (50.1% WR); market pricing reflects heat and wind tradeoffs already
- Nationals Park factors in 1.0x neutral, so weather is the primary driver—if cooling (unlikely), edge vanishes
- Luis Castillo 5.57 ERA but previous season data may be outdated; sample size risk on both pitchers
WEATHER IMPACTPITCHER QUALITYF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 50.7%
-35.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.0 pts
Total
9.0
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →