SEA vs WSH prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.1 - SEA 5.5. SEA is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
WSH
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
SEA
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHSEA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
467
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.1 — SEA 5.5
Actual
WSH 10 — SEA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF38%95 mph22% whiff
SI24%95 mph9% whiff
ST19%77 mph32% whiff
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST34%79 mph25% whiff
FF30%90 mph10% whiff
SI20%89 mph3% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
91°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.26ERA
3.70FIP
8.76K/9
3.62BB/9
1.33WHIP
WSH
4.66ERA
5.01FIP
7.70K/9
4.09BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.9% EV
-141
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.9% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-9.8% EV
-139
F5_ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
-143
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
-8.6% EV
-104
ML HOME
+3.6% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.1 runs
45.6% win
WSH F5
2.9 runs
41.7% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.1%
YRFI
54.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs PJ Poulin
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs PJ Poulin
Julio Rodríguez SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.091 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs PJ Poulin | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Randy Arozarena LFDAY-TO-DAY
Dane Dunning RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Rodden 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.6%
-31.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.9 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →