FINAL: ARI 5 — SF 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 6.7 - SF 5.9 (ARI at 58.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 12.5 total runs.
ARI
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SF
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISF
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SF L4ARI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
468
ARI
579
Projected
ARI 6.7 — SF 5.9
Actual
ARI 5 — SF 4
Pick Results
ARI MLmlWIN+0.36u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph16% whiff
FS25%85 mph24% whiff
FC14%88 mph8% whiff
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
FF40%92 mph19% whiff
CH27%86 mph19% whiff
FC13%89 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
100°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.010
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-42.1% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.8% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+20.8% EV
-112
F5 OVER 4.5
+16.7% EV
-141
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-8.6% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.3 runs
37.6% win
ARI F5
4.0 runs
51.3% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
42.8%
YRFI
57.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.47
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
87%
No HR
3%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Eduardo Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Casey Schmitt LFDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 58.4%
+4.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.8 pts
Total
9.0
+20.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →