Who is predicted to win SF vs ARI on July 1, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, ARI is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is ARI 5.5 - SF 4.8.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs ARI Prediction & Picks — July 1, 2026

SF vs ARI prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.5 - SF 4.8. ARI is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.

ARI

5.5

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.5

4.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

57.6%

42.4%

ARISF

+1.5

Run Line (ARI)

9.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,559 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

ARI

467

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Trevor McDonald R

SI58%94 mph11% whiff

SL27%86 mph38% whiff

CH14%83 mph31% whiff

Zac Gallen R

ARI

FF37%93 mph5% whiff

SL22%89 mph29% whiff

KC19%82 mph22% whiff

Weather Impact

Chase Field

99°F9 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.024 Total: 1.009

thin air, 8mph in

Bullpen Comparison

4.06ERA

4.43FIP

8.10K/9

4.84BB/9

1.41WHIP

ARI

3.28ERA

3.68FIP

8.28K/9

3.10BB/9

1.10WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-27.3% EV

-192

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-16.1% EV

+158

ML AWAY

-13.1% EV

-102

TOTAL UNDER 9.5

-9.1% EV

-112

F5_ML AWAY

-6.4% EV

-118

ML HOME

+4.4% EV

-116

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

2.8 runs

43.4% win

ARI F5

2.9 runs

42.8% win

F5 Total

5.7

NRFI

49.2%

YRFI

50.7%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.12

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.9

Over 0.5 HR

93%

Over 1.5 HR

76%

No HR

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Trevor McDonald

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Zac Gallen

0.0 K projected

ARI | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Matt Chapman 3BDAY-TO-DAY

Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY

Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL

Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL

Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL

Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL

+2 more

ARI8 injured

Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL

Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL

Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL

James McCann C10-DAY-IL

Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL

A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Two bad pitchers, small edge, no conviction

YELLOW ZONE59.2% WR (n=82)

Zac Gallen (6.64 ERA, 12.7% K, D grade) is the worst pitcher on the board. Trevor McDonald (5.34 ERA, 20% K) is bad but better. ARI is favored at -116 despite having the worse arm. Model projects 10.37 on 9.5 (0.2% OVER edge = coin flip). The 4.4% ML edge is modest. It's 98.9°F in Phoenix (hottest game), but neither arm is good enough to generate conviction. Skip — no edge, no story.

Both pitchers poor: Gallen 6.64 ERA (D grade) >> McDonald 5.34 ERA (B- grade but limited)
ML edge 4.4% is minimal
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NEUTRAL EDGEWEATHER IMPACTPOOR PITCHER QUALITY

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Edge Analysis

Moneyline

ARI 57.6%

-27.3 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-27.3 pts

Total

9.5

+0.2 pts

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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

SF vs ARI Prediction