SF vs ARI prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.7 - SF 5.7. ARI is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
ARI
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SF
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISF
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
468
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI36%93 mph9% whiff
CU27%77 mph36% whiff
CH20%87 mph31% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
SI21%93 mph9% whiff
CU21%82 mph36% whiff
FF20%94 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
99°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.009
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.3% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-17.4% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+8.0% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.9% EV
+155
ML AWAY
-4.1% EV
-102
ML HOME
-4.1% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.4 runs
50.1% win
ARI F5
2.9 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
47.8%
YRFI
52.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF25.6%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Brandon Pfaadt | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Pfaadt
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 51.5%
-32.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.3 pts
Total
9.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →