SF vs ATL prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 5.0 - SF 4.6. ATL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
ATL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SF
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSF
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 5.0 — SF 4.6
Actual
ATL 5 — SF 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI46%95 mph8% whiff
CH17%85 mph31% whiff
FF15%95 mph22% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL40%85 mph39% whiff
FF33%94 mph12% whiff
SI8%93 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.006
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.3% EV
-164
F5_ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-139
ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-5.6% EV
-123
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.8% EV
+136
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-3.3% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.7 runs
41.8% win
ATL F5
2.9 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
45.1%
YRFI
54.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Adrian Houser | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Adrian Houser | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Michael Harris II CFDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Kinley RP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE
SF @ ATL is neutral; model and market aligned (ATL 54.4% model vs 59.5% market implied = ~5% overpricing of ATL, but within normal variance). Pitcher matchup modest (Holmes 4.37 ERA B- vs Houser 5.98 ERA C+ — ATL advantage but not dominant). No zone support, no strong weather/injury story. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage marginal: Holmes (4.37 ERA, 20.5% K rate, B- stuff 0.394) vs Houser (5.98 ERA, 15.7% K rate, C+ stuff 0.350). 1.61 ERA gap is modest (~1.5 run swing); not dominant mismatch
- ATL home field slight edge but not overwhelming (55% model vs 59.5% market suggests only ~3-4 pt difference priced in)
- Acuna IL key: Ronald Acuna Jr. (10-day hamstring) removes star RF; ~0.5-1.0 pt swing to ATL
- Weather neutral: 77.6°F, 6 mph wind in at Truist = slight run suppression (1.006 multiplier); neither helps/hurts significantly
- Total 9.5 vs model 9.6 = even; no totals edge
Risk Factors
- ATL market price (-147) implies 59.5% prob, model only 55% — suggests market overvaluing home team
- SF could be underestimated if Houser's recent ERA (5.98) is outlier and actual stuff better
- No zone confirmation data; YELLOW zone signals no historical advantage either direction
NEUTRAL EDGESKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.4%
-4.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.8 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →