SF vs CHC prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.0 - SF 5.6. CHC is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
CHC
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
SF
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSF
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.0 — SF 5.6
Actual
CHC 3 — SF 18
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF45%93 mph16% whiff
SL29%85 mph31% whiff
CH16%86 mph29% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH32%93 mph29% whiff
SI21%96 mph4% whiff
CU19%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
73°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.998
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.03ERA
4.39FIP
7.77K/9
4.92BB/9
1.41WHIP
CHC
3.47ERA
4.73FIP
8.08K/9
3.92BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.7% EV
-133
TOTAL UNDER 11.0
-15.0% EV
-115
ML HOME
-10.6% EV
-175
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.4% EV
+112
F5_ML HOME
-9.5% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 11.0
-7.1% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.3 runs
38.9% win
CHC F5
3.8 runs
49.9% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
47.3%
YRFI
52.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Landen Roupp SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE53.5% WR (n=203)
CHC just got demolished 18-3 by SF yesterday — team in freefall, but today's matchup (Cabrera 4.32 ERA vs Ray 4.81 ERA) is near-identical SP quality with both C+ grades, neutralizing pitcher advantage. Weather slight (wind 6 mph in), and YELLOW zone for all directionals. Avoid.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality identical: Cabrera 4.32 ERA, Ray 4.81 ERA — no SP mismatch (both C+ grades, 8.0 K/9 each)
- ML edges: HOME -10.6% (RED flag), AWAY +6.0% (still RED zone for away dogs). No edge clears model thresholds
- Weather: Wrigley, 73°F, 6 mph tailwind in, HR mult 1.002 — neutral impact, totals suppressed slightly (-0.2 runs)
- Momentum: CHC lost 18-3 yesterday; market already adjusted to 63.7% CHC underdog (from sim 44.4%)
- YELLOW zone all directions: Even home dogs show 42.9% WR historically in this profile
Risk Factors
- CHC momentum crash could override fundamentals — but sp quality says this game should be close
- Away ML edge 6.0% sits in RED zone historically (46.5% away WR). High risk even with positive edge
- Total market is at fair value — no value on either direction
DATA INTEGRITYMOMENTUM ISSUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.6%
-10.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.4 pts
Total
11.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →