SF vs CHC prediction for June 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.9 - SF 5.5. SF is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CHC
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSF
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,183 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
467
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.9 — SF 5.5
Actual
CHC 3 — SF 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI37%93 mph9% whiff
CU29%77 mph37% whiff
CH18%87 mph30% whiff
Ben Brown R
CHC
FF37%97 mph12% whiff
KC37%87 mph45% whiff
SI20%97 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
74°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.039
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.08ERA
4.42FIP
7.74K/9
4.91BB/9
1.42WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.11FIP
8.00K/9
4.02BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-30.5% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.2% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.3% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-19.4% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.3% EV
+140
ML HOME
-17.8% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.9 runs
47.4% win
CHC F5
2.5 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
12%
Ian Happ CHC18.1%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC16.3%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Casey Schmitt SF16.3%
ISO: 0.290 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Ben Brown | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
This game already resolved: CHC won 3-2 in 10 innings. Michael Busch singled in the go-ahead run in extra innings. Ben Brown (CHC, 2.07 ERA) was dominant early but game went extra. Remove from today's analysis.
DATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.5%
-18.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.3 pts
Total
7.5
+20.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →