SF vs CHC prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.2 - SF 6.0. SF is favored with a 64.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSF
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.0% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
468
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 4.2 — SF 6.0
Actual
CHC 1 — SF 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI59%94 mph15% whiff
SL28%86 mph41% whiff
CH13%84 mph39% whiff
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF28%92 mph18% whiff
FC19%86 mph24% whiff
ST16%80 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
72°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.081 Total: 1.045
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.95ERA
4.41FIP
7.95K/9
5.03BB/9
1.42WHIP
CHC
4.17ERA
5.19FIP
8.07K/9
4.08BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-36.5% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-31.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.4% EV
+168
ML HOME
-29.0% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
+27.5% EV
-106
ML AWAY
+25.8% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.7 runs
62.7% win
CHC F5
2.0 runs
25.2% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x
Willy Adames SF30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x
Rafael Devers SF26.4%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE68.8% WR (n=16)
Model shows 25.8% away ML edge (SF 59.9% vs market 47.6%) — EXTREME edge but in away favorite zone which is historically PROFITABLE (away favorite 68.8% WR, 16 games tracked). Starting pitchers: Trevor McDonald (SF away, 4.86 ERA, B stuff 0.462, B+ command 0.691) vs Jameson Taillon (CHC home, 5.54 ERA, C+ stuff 0.389, B command 0.574). McDonald is better (0.68 ERA gap, superior command 0.691 vs 0.574). SP quality favors away. Weather 71.7F neutral, 10.2mph tail wind OUT (Wrigley = +1.0 run tail wind impact). Model projects SF 5.95 away runs, CHC 4.15 home runs (SF advantage). Away ML 25.8% edge in PROFITABLE zone (away favorite 68.8% WR) + tail wind support + SP advantage = STRONG BET at 1.5 units. This is the cleanest directional play of the slate.
Key Factors
- Away favorite zone: 68.8% WR (16 games tracked) — PROFITABLE. This is one of only a few profitable combos tracked.
- SP quality: McDonald 4.86 ERA (B stuff 0.462, B+ command 0.691) better than Taillon 5.54 ERA (C+ stuff, B command). 0.68 ERA gap favors away.
- Weather tail: 10.2mph tail wind OUT at Wrigley = +0.75-1.0 run inflation. Wrigley characteristic play (friendly to overs/away HR potential).
- Model away runs 5.95 vs home 4.15 = 1.8 run projected advantage. F5 ML also shows away edge 27.5% (65.7% model prob)
- Bullpen: SF 3.95 vs CHC 4.17 ERA — away edge in relief
Risk Factors
- 25.8% edge is large; expect some compression from true edge (likely 15-20%), but zone profitability (away favorite 68.8%) provides confidence buffer
- Taillon recent form unknown — 5.54 ERA may improve with rest or worsen with fatigue. Confirm recent starts.
- Wind reversal risk. If pregame forecast shifts wind direction, tail wind becomes headwind (-1.0 run swing). Confirm wind direction in pregame.
AWAY FAVORITE PROFITABLE ZONESP QUALITY MISMATCH AWAYWEATHER TAIL CONFIRMEDBULLPEN EDGE SECONDARYALIGNED EDGESTRONG BET JUSTIFIED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 64.0%
-30.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.4 pts
Total
8.0
+12.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →