SF vs CIN prediction for April 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.6 - SF 3.8. CIN is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
CIN
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINSF
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFCIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
CIN
357
Pick Results
Jung Hoo Lee OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+1.74u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI39%93 mph8% whiff
CU24%76 mph28% whiff
CH20%87 mph29% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph21% whiff
SL37%91 mph50% whiff
CH6%90 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
79°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.956 Total: 0.971
thin air, 15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.17ERA
4.35FIP
10.04K/9
4.86BB/9
1.44WHIP
CIN
2.66ERA
4.22FIP
9.39K/9
6.17BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.1% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-12.5% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
+110
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+7.8% EV
+162
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-6.0% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.0 runs
35.6% win
CIN F5
2.6 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
58.9%
YRFI
41.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.362 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 1.08x
Willy Adames SF26.5%
ISO: 0.326 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x
Drew Gilbert SF23.0%
ISO: 0.089 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva OF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader LF10-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP15-DAY-IL
Parks Harber 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Emilio Pagan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE52.9% WR (n=15)
Home ML edge (3.9%) is below calibration threshold (8% minimum). Chase Burns (B+, 3.57 ERA) has modest advantage over Landen Roupp (B-, 3.50 ERA) based on stuff grade, but edge is too small to overcome vig.
Key Factors
- Chase Burns (3.57 ERA, B+ stuff, 28% K-rate, 0.686 grade) > Landen Roupp (3.50 ERA, C+ stuff, 26% K-rate, 0.446 grade)
- Burns' stuff advantage (B+ vs C+) = ~2-3% win prob edge, fully captured in model's 59.4%
- Market -129 (56.5% implied) is only 2.9% below model — market is rational
- Wind 15.5 mph IN at Great American (mult 0.971) suppresses runs modestly
- No strong signal on totals (edges near zero on both sides)
Risk Factors
- 3.9% edge below our 8% ML floor — not actionable
- Small sample in YELLOW zone (n=15) — limited historical precedent
- Home win probability 59% is reasonable but not compelling
BELOW THRESHOLDPITCHER MISMATCH MINORYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 59.4%
+7.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.8 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →