Who is predicted to win SF vs COL on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SF is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is COL 5.3 - SF 6.3.

How did SF vs COL on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: COL 8 - SF 6. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs COL Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

SF vs COL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 5.3 - SF 6.3. SF is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.

COL

5.3

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.5

6.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

43.1%

56.9%

COLSF

+1.5

Run Line (COL)

10.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

468

COL

357

Projected

COL 5.3 — SF 6.3

Actual

COL 8 — SF 6

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Logan Webb R

SI38%92 mph12% whiff

CH23%86 mph27% whiff

ST21%84 mph15% whiff

Michael Lorenzen R

COL

CH20%85 mph32% whiff

FF20%94 mph8% whiff

SI16%93 mph12% whiff

Weather Impact

Coors Field

82°F5 mph wind

HR: 1.120 Total: 1.059

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

3.30ERA

4.07FIP

8.01K/9

4.77BB/9

1.31WHIP

COL

4.82ERA

4.14FIP

8.36K/9

3.88BB/9

1.44WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-35.4% EV

-122

TOTAL UNDER 10.5

-12.2% EV

-112

F5_ML HOME

-9.5% EV

+132

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-8.4% EV

+102

ML AWAY

-5.6% EV

-154

TOTAL OVER 10.5

+3.3% EV

-108

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

3.6 runs

53.9% win

COL F5

2.7 runs

33.9% win

F5 Total

6.3

NRFI

46.0%

YRFI

54.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.20

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.4

Over 0.5 HR

96%

Over 1.5 HR

84%

No HR

Casey Schmitt SF30.0%

ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x

Hunter Goodman COL21.8%

ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.18x

Willy Adames SF21.0%

ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Logan Webb

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Michael Lorenzen

0.0 K projected

COL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL

Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL

Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL

Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL

Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

COL8 injured

Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL

Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL

Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL

Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL

Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL

Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SF 56.9%

-35.4 pts

Run Line