Who is predicted to win SF vs COL on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SF is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is COL 5.3 - SF 6.3.

How did SF vs COL on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: COL 8 - SF 6. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs COL Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

SF vs COL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 5.3 - SF 6.3. SF is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.

COL

5.3

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.5

6.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

43.1%

56.9%

COLSF

+1.5

Run Line (COL)

10.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,610 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

468

COL

357

Projected

COL 5.3 — SF 6.3

Actual

COL 8 — SF 6

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Logan Webb R

SI38%92 mph12% whiff

CH23%86 mph27% whiff

ST21%84 mph15% whiff

Michael Lorenzen R

COL

CH20%85 mph32% whiff

FF20%94 mph8% whiff

SI16%93 mph12% whiff

Weather Impact

Coors Field

82°F5 mph wind

HR: 1.120 Total: 1.059

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

3.30ERA

4.07FIP

8.01K/9

4.77BB/9

1.31WHIP

COL

4.82ERA

4.14FIP

8.36K/9

3.88BB/9

1.44WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-35.4% EV

-122

TOTAL UNDER 10.5

-12.2% EV

-112

F5_ML HOME

-9.5% EV

+132

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-8.4% EV

+102

ML AWAY

-5.6% EV

-154

TOTAL OVER 10.5

+3.3% EV

-108

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

3.6 runs

53.9% win

COL F5

2.7 runs

33.9% win

F5 Total

6.3

NRFI

46.0%

YRFI

54.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.20

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.4

Over 0.5 HR

96%

Over 1.5 HR

84%

No HR

Casey Schmitt SF30.0%

ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x

Hunter Goodman COL21.8%

ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.18x

Willy Adames SF21.0%

ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 1.18x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Logan Webb

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Michael Lorenzen

0.0 K projected

COL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Jung Hoo Lee RF10-DAY-IL

Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL

Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL

Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL

Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

COL8 injured

Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL

Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL

Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL

Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL

Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL

Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SF 56.9%

-35.4 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-35.4 pts

Total

10.5

+3.3 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

SF vs COL Prediction