SF vs COL prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.1 - SF 7.1. SF is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 13.2 total runs.
COL
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
SF
7.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSF
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
579
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.1 — SF 7.1
Actual
COL 8 — SF 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI46%95 mph7% whiff
CH18%85 mph31% whiff
SL14%88 mph15% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF24%95 mph8% whiff
SL21%89 mph22% whiff
CH16%86 mph51% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
72°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.151 Total: 1.076
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.30ERA
4.07FIP
8.01K/9
4.77BB/9
1.31WHIP
COL
4.82ERA
4.14FIP
8.36K/9
3.88BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.4% EV
-161
TOTAL UNDER 11.0
-29.4% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-18.0% EV
-106
F5 OVER 5.5
+12.1% EV
-135
ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 11.0
+7.8% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
4.3 runs
53.6% win
COL F5
3.4 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
7.7
NRFI
38.6%
YRFI
61.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.53
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.1
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
91%
No HR
2%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=299)
SF away is in RED zone (43.4% WR). Feltner has pitcher advantage to COL home (+2.4 K/9, B- vs C grade). Over edge 7.8% is within normal Coors variance (market accounts for inflation). ML edge +1.2% is insufficient to overcome away RED zone. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Coors Field context: Park factor 1.18 (inflate 18%), thin air, 5mph wind out, 72.4°F. Model projects 13.18 runs. Market has 11.0. Gap of 2.18 runs is normal for Coors (expected inflation 1.5-2.5 runs).
- Starting pitchers: Adrian Houser (SF away, C grade, 5.3 K/9, weak stuff D grade) vs Ryan Feltner (COL home, B-, 7.7 K/9). FELTNER IS CLEARLY SUPERIOR: +2.4 K/9, B- vs C grade. This is PITCHER_MISMATCH TO COL (home).
- However, COL is home (not away), so pitcher mismatch benefits home team. But SF away is in RED zone historically (43.4% WR).
- SF away at -116 (53.8% implied) is near fair value (model 55.0%). Over edge 7.8% is within normal Coors range and doesn't signal predictive edge.
- Both teams mediocre: COL 23-37 (5th NL West, rebuilding), SF 30-30 (3rd NL West). Neither elite.
Risk Factors
- SF is away dog in RED zone (43.4% WR). Even with +1.2% edge on ML, away RED zone is hard block.
- Over edge 7.8% is within expected Coors variance. Market's 11.0 total may be correct after accounting for park inflation.
- Houser (5.3 K/9, D stuff grade) is weak pitcher. Model may be underestimating COL advantage at Coors with weak SF arm.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 55.8%
-38.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.4 pts
Total
11.0
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →