Who is predicted to win SF vs COL on May 31, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, COL is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is COL 6.8 - SF 6.9.

How did SF vs COL on May 31, 2026 end?

Final score: COL 6 - SF 19. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs COL Prediction & Picks — May 31, 2026

SF vs COL prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.8 - SF 6.9. COL is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 13.7 total runs.

COL

6.8

Projected Score

VS O/U 11.0

6.9

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.4%

48.6%

COLSF

+1.5

Run Line (COL)

11.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (2,440 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

579

COL

579

Projected

COL 6.8 — SF 6.9

Actual

COL 6 — SF 19

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Robbie Ray L

FF45%93 mph16% whiff

SL30%85 mph32% whiff

CH16%86 mph29% whiff

Tanner Gordon R

COL

FF34%93 mph22% whiff

SL26%87 mph24% whiff

CH21%85 mph20% whiff

Weather Impact

Coors Field

80°F15 mph wind

HR: 1.076 Total: 1.037

thin air, 9mph in

Bullpen Comparison

3.30ERA

4.07FIP

8.01K/9

4.77BB/9

1.31WHIP

COL

4.82ERA

4.14FIP

8.36K/9

3.88BB/9

1.44WHIP

Betting Edges

TOTAL UNDER 11.0

-33.7% EV

-110

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-29.5% EV

-161

F5 OVER 6.5

+23.6% EV

+108

TOTAL OVER 11.0

+12.5% EV

-110

F5_ML AWAY

-11.6% EV

-118

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-9.8% EV

+134

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

4.1 runs

41.9% win

COL F5

4.4 runs

48.0% win

F5 Total

8.5

NRFI

36.5%

YRFI

63.5%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.64

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

4.3

Over 0.5 HR

99%

Over 1.5 HR

93%

No HR

Casey Schmitt SF30.0%

ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x

Hunter Goodman COL30.0%

ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x

Rafael Devers SF29.9%

ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Robbie Ray

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Tanner Gordon

0.0 K projected

COL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL

Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL

Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL

Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL

Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

COL8 injured

Welinton Herrera RP15-DAY-IL

Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL

Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL

Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL

Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL

Victor Vodnik RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRAL -1

OVER 11.0 with 12.5% edge but totals disabled. Wind IN (14.8 mph) offsets Coors park factor. Both lineups compromised (Bryant, Oliva, Bader, Ramos out). YELLOW zone totals (50.1% WR) show no advantage. Skip per calibration.

Key Factors

Wind IN dampens Coors
Both lineups weak
Totals disabled

Risk Factors

Totals disabled
Wind conflict
Injuries

TOTALS DISABLEDCONFLICTING WEATHERINJURIES BOTH SIDES

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

COL 51.4%

-29.5 pts

Run Line